How exposed to AI is production work?

Across the 107 occupations in this family, the median exposed share of weighted task load is 16.2%, which is below the site-wide median of 24.3%. It ranks 17 of 22 occupational families. The most exposed role is First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers at 36.6% and the least is Slaughterers and Meat Packers at 0.0%.

Occupational family

AI exposure in production occupations

Q: What stops AI doing production work?

The dominant friction in this family is embodiment, averaging 2.50 out of 3 across its 2,140 tasks. The work happens to physical objects in physical rooms. No amount of model capability reaches it, because the bottleneck is hands rather than reasoning.

107 occupations, 2,140 tasks, scored against the capability frontier of 2026-09-15. This family ranks 17 of 22 by median exposed share.

16.2%

median exposed share computed

107

occupations in the family

6.6M

US jobs in this family sourced

$48,040

median of the family’s median wages

Reading this family

computed

The median production occupation has 16.2% of its weighted task load in work current AI systems can already produce, which is 8.1 points below the median across every occupation in the index. Weighted by how many people actually do these jobs, the figure is 17.0%, across 6,562,150 US workers. 4 of these occupations fall in the exposed band, 0 in assisted and 103 in untouched.

What holds the line across this family is embodiment, at 2.50 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions here. In plain terms the obstacle is a body in a place. The work happens to physical objects in physical rooms. No amount of model capability reaches it, because the bottleneck is hands rather than reasoning.

The spread inside the family is wider than the gap between families, which is the usual pattern and the reason this index does not publish a single number per group. First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers sits at 36.6%. Slaughterers and Meat Packers sits at 0.0%. Both are production occupations, and 36.6 points separate them.

Where the family score comes from

judged

Means across all 2,140 tasks in this family. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

Dimension	Mean	Scale
Capability	0.95	0-4
Embodiment	2.50	0-3
Presence	0.34	0-3
Accountability	0.52	0-3
Context	1.06	0-3
Verification cost	0.99	0-3

Every production occupation

See them on the chart

Occupation	Exposed	Assisted	Untouched	Median pay	Tasks	Band
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers	36.6%	22.6%	40.8%	$74,450	20	exposed
Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers	35.0%	20.4%	44.5%	$68,120	16	exposed
Power Distributors and Dispatchers	33.2%	19.7%	47.1%	$106,730	14	exposed
Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators	31.0%	9.7%	59.3%	$40,610	27	untouched
Nuclear Power Reactor Operators	29.4%	21.3%	49.3%	$122,890	19	exposed
Chemical Plant and System Operators	28.1%	19.0%	52.9%	$78,120	19	untouched
Prepress Technicians and Workers	26.4%	12.8%	60.9%	$48,690	15	untouched
Gas Plant Operators	26.2%	19.6%	54.2%	$87,820	19	untouched
Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers	25.4%	15.1%	59.5%	$96,710	24	untouched
Patternmakers, Wood	24.3%	10.2%	65.4%	$49,630	20	untouched
Printing Press Operators	24.1%	11.3%	64.5%	$45,780	23	untouched
Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers	23.8%	10.4%	65.7%	$48,220	11	untouched
Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers	23.3%	8.2%	68.6%	$62,750	16	untouched
Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators	22.9%	13.4%	63.7%	$50,690	27	untouched
Power Plant Operators	22.9%	15.9%	61.3%	$102,040	30	untouched
Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	22.7%	11.0%	66.3%	$52,800	15	untouched
Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	22.3%	11.9%	65.9%	$38,760	18	untouched
Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers	22.1%	8.3%	69.7%	$52,540	30	untouched
Cooling and Freezing Equipment Operators and Tenders	21.9%	11.4%	66.7%	$41,330	18	untouched
Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators	21.9%	16.1%	61.9%	$78,620	25	untouched
Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers	21.6%	11.3%	67.0%	$46,350	17	untouched
Furnace, Kiln, Oven, Drier, and Kettle Operators and Tenders	21.4%	12.8%	65.8%	$48,040	17	untouched
Team Assemblers	21.4%	11.8%	66.8%	n/a	11	untouched
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers	20.9%	12.0%	67.1%	$48,570	31	untouched
Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders	20.7%	11.2%	68.0%	$46,460	16	untouched
Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	20.4%	10.7%	68.9%	$39,530	19	untouched
Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders	20.0%	14.1%	66.0%	$58,040	24	untouched
Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders	19.9%	10.0%	70.2%	$38,180	23	untouched
Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	19.8%	11.3%	68.9%	$51,610	20	untouched
Biofuels Processing Technicians	19.8%	16.8%	63.4%	$62,470	19	untouched
Machinists	19.7%	11.2%	69.0%	$58,750	29	untouched
Biomass Plant Technicians	19.7%	14.3%	66.0%	$102,040	18	untouched
Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	19.7%	9.5%	70.8%	$45,760	26	untouched
Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	19.6%	11.1%	69.3%	$50,140	19	untouched
Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders	19.6%	10.9%	69.5%	$44,810	19	untouched
Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	19.2%	12.3%	68.5%	$48,750	23	untouched
Food Cooking Machine Operators and Tenders	19.0%	9.8%	71.2%	$41,590	17	untouched
Food Batchmakers	18.9%	13.5%	67.6%	$42,290	25	untouched
Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	18.8%	10.5%	70.8%	$47,180	21	untouched
Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	18.7%	10.8%	70.5%	$48,540	21	untouched
Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	18.1%	11.0%	70.9%	$38,670	23	untouched
Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators	18.1%	14.7%	67.2%	$60,020	8	untouched
Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders	18.0%	10.0%	72.0%	$43,530	11	untouched
Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic	17.9%	8.0%	74.1%	$58,000	15	untouched
Hydroelectric Plant Technicians	17.5%	12.7%	69.7%	$102,040	21	untouched
Glass Blowers, Molders, Benders, and Finishers	17.4%	8.1%	74.4%	$46,170	19	untouched
Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic	17.1%	6.4%	76.4%	$63,870	14	untouched
Semiconductor Processing Technicians	16.9%	8.2%	74.9%	$51,430	17	untouched
Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	16.5%	9.1%	74.4%	$47,920	29	untouched
Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	16.4%	9.6%	74.0%	$46,550	18	untouched
Bakers	16.4%	11.1%	72.6%	$37,160	18	untouched
Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	16.3%	8.0%	75.7%	$49,030	12	untouched
Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	16.3%	9.0%	74.7%	$50,620	18	untouched
Model Makers, Metal and Plastic	16.2%	9.8%	74.0%	$63,340	16	untouched
Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders	16.1%	10.3%	73.6%	$54,430	15	untouched
Mixing and Blending Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	15.8%	8.1%	76.1%	$48,990	20	untouched
Etchers and Engravers	15.5%	7.5%	77.0%	$43,310	26	untouched
Tool and Die Makers	15.5%	8.5%	76.0%	$64,050	17	untouched
Print Binding and Finishing Workers	15.3%	8.3%	76.4%	$42,290	25	untouched
Butchers and Meat Cutters	15.2%	8.7%	76.1%	$40,140	11	untouched
Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	14.7%	8.3%	77.0%	$46,570	28	untouched
Potters, Manufacturing	14.4%	7.2%	78.4%	$46,170	23	untouched
Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers	13.7%	8.8%	77.5%	n/a	17	untouched
Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing	13.2%	8.5%	78.3%	$43,380	25	untouched
Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	13.1%	8.5%	78.5%	$47,720	16	untouched
Model Makers, Wood	13.0%	5.8%	81.2%	$56,550	14	untouched
Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	12.6%	7.5%	79.9%	$44,350	29	untouched
Plating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	12.6%	7.0%	80.4%	$43,960	33	untouched
Gem and Diamond Workers	12.5%	11.9%	75.6%	$52,540	22	untouched
Stone Cutters and Carvers, Manufacturing	12.2%	5.5%	82.2%	$46,170	14	untouched
Upholsterers	11.8%	4.7%	83.6%	$46,340	22	untouched
Tool Grinders, Filers, and Sharpeners	11.7%	6.8%	81.5%	$50,060	18	untouched
Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand	11.5%	6.1%	82.4%	$42,660	17	untouched
Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	11.4%	6.0%	82.5%	$46,330	31	untouched
Sawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Wood	11.0%	6.1%	82.9%	$42,770	22	untouched
Furniture Finishers	10.9%	5.7%	83.4%	$44,540	22	untouched
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers	10.8%	7.2%	82.0%	$53,750	30	untouched
Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic	10.2%	4.4%	85.4%	$46,170	24	untouched
Ophthalmic Laboratory Technicians	10.2%	4.7%	85.1%	$39,460	18	untouched
Tailors, Dressmakers, and Custom Sewers	10.1%	4.2%	85.7%	$41,640	22	untouched
Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	9.9%	6.9%	83.2%	$50,270	14	untouched
Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers	9.7%	4.2%	86.1%	$34,890	32	untouched
Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters	9.6%	5.1%	85.3%	$46,680	20	untouched
Pourers and Casters, Metal	9.4%	5.3%	85.3%	$51,810	16	untouched
Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers	9.4%	5.8%	84.9%	$41,600	9	untouched
Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	9.1%	5.3%	85.5%	$49,080	17	untouched
Sewers, Hand	9.1%	4.3%	86.6%	$36,480	11	untouched
Helpers--Production Workers	9.0%	4.8%	86.1%	$39,070	34	untouched
Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters	9.0%	4.9%	86.1%	$62,620	17	untouched
Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	9.0%	4.5%	86.4%	$48,250	29	untouched
Medical Appliance Technicians	8.9%	4.4%	86.7%	$48,030	16	untouched
Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders	8.8%	4.9%	86.3%	$43,220	20	untouched
Sewing Machine Operators	7.9%	4.3%	87.9%	$36,670	26	untouched
Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders	7.6%	4.2%	88.2%	$35,650	19	untouched
Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters	7.2%	4.5%	88.3%	$51,330	23	untouched
Dental Laboratory Technicians	7.0%	4.7%	88.2%	$49,610	17	untouched
Cutters and Trimmers, Hand	6.7%	2.9%	90.4%	$38,020	18	untouched
Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers	6.7%	2.9%	90.5%	$37,800	26	untouched
Engine and Other Machine Assemblers	6.0%	3.8%	90.2%	$53,710	12	untouched
Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers	4.8%	3.9%	91.3%	n/a	14	untouched
Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators	4.6%	2.6%	92.9%	$46,880	16	untouched
Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials	4.2%	2.2%	93.6%	$35,060	28	untouched
Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers	3.4%	2.4%	94.2%	$65,380	26	untouched
Foundry Mold and Coremakers	1.1%	0.5%	98.4%	$48,110	13	untouched
Tire Builders	1.0%	0.5%	98.5%	$57,390	20	untouched
Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers	0.8%	0.8%	98.4%	$38,300	12	untouched
Slaughterers and Meat Packers	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	$40,130	14	untouched

Exposure is not displacement. These figures say what current systems can produce and what stands in the way. They do not say anyone will stop paying a person to do the work. How the score is built.