The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 51-4191.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

Set up, operate, or tend heating equipment, such as heat-treating furnaces, flame-hardening machines, induction machines, soaking pits, or vacuum equipment to temper, harden, anneal, or heat treat metal or plastic objects.

Reading this score

computed

At 19.2% of weighted task load, Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic sits at the 33th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 68.5% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 23 tasks it averages 2.52 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Record times that parts are removed from furnaces to document that objects have attained..., at 73.3%. The least is Stamp heat-treatment identification marks on parts, at 0.0%. A gap of 73.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within production occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 107 roles in the group is 16.1%, and only 35 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 23 tasks, 7 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 16 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.060-4
Embodiment2.520-3
Presence0.380-3
Accountability0.480-3
Context1.220-3
Verification cost1.090-3

Task by task

23 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Record times that parts are removed from furnaces to document that objects have attained specified temperatures for specified times.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.69exposed
Determine flame temperatures, current frequencies, heating cycles, and induction heating coils needed, based on degree of hardness required and properties of stock to be treated.40.0%35.0%25.0%4.71exposed
Determine types and temperatures of baths and quenching media needed to attain specified part hardness, toughness, and ductility, using heat-treating charts and knowledge of methods, equipment, and metals.40.0%35.0%25.0%4.66exposed
Adjust controls to maintain temperatures and heating times, using thermal instruments and charts, dials and gauges of furnaces, and color of stock in furnaces to make setting determinations.33.3%16.7%50.0%4.59exposed
Reduce heat when processing is complete to allow parts to cool in furnaces or machinery.33.3%16.7%50.0%4.13exposed
Read production schedules and work orders to determine processing sequences, furnace temperatures, and heat cycle requirements for objects to be heat-treated.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.83exposed
Move controls to light gas burners and to adjust gas and water flow and flame temperature.26.7%23.3%50.0%4.31exposed
Set up and operate or tend machines, such as furnaces, baths, flame-hardening machines, and electronic induction machines, that harden, anneal, and heat-treat metal.16.7%8.3%75.0%4.50untouched
Set and adjust speeds of reels and conveyors for prescribed time cycles to pass parts through continuous furnaces.16.7%8.3%75.0%4.54untouched
Examine parts to ensure metal shades and colors conform to specifications, using knowledge of metal heat-treating.15.0%10.0%75.0%4.60untouched
Test parts for hardness, using hardness testing equipment, or by examining and feeling samples.15.0%10.0%75.0%4.39untouched
Heat billets, bars, plates, rods, and other stock to specified temperatures preparatory to forging, rolling, or processing, using oil, gas, or electrical furnaces.15.0%10.0%75.0%4.07untouched
Instruct new workers in machine operation.8.3%16.7%75.0%3.95untouched
Repair, replace, and maintain furnace equipment as needed, using hand tools.4.3%4.1%91.7%3.85untouched
Start conveyors and open furnace doors to load stock, or signal crane operators to uncover soaking pits and lower ingots into them.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.52untouched
Remove parts from furnaces after specified times, and air dry or cool parts in water, oil brine, or other baths.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.39untouched
Load parts into containers and place containers on conveyors to be inserted into furnaces, or insert parts into furnaces.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.47untouched
Signal forklift operators to deposit or extract containers of parts into and from furnaces and quenching rinse tanks.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.14untouched
Mount workpieces in fixtures, on arbors, or between centers of machines.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.13untouched
Mount fixtures and industrial coils on machines, using hand tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.12untouched
Position stock in furnaces, using tongs, chain hoists, or pry bars.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.03untouched
Clean oxides and scales from parts or fittings, using steam sprays or chemical and water baths.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.59untouched
Stamp heat-treatment identification marks on parts, using hammers and punches.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.22untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.