AI exposure: Bakers
Mix and bake ingredients to produce breads, rolls, cookies, cakes, pies, pastries, or other baked goods.
Reading this score
computedAt 16.4% of weighted task load, Bakers sits at the 27th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 72.6% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 18 tasks it averages 2.34 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Order or receive supplies or equipment, at 80.0%. The least is Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within production occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 107 roles in the group is 16.1%, and only 50 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 18 tasks, 5 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 12 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 1.25 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.34 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.70 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.67 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.35 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.03 | 0-3 |
Task by task
18 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order or receive supplies or equipment. | 80.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 4.29 | exposed |
| Prepare or maintain inventory or production records. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 4.26 | exposed |
| Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked. | 40.0% | 35.0% | 25.0% | 4.43 | exposed |
| Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking. | 33.3% | 16.7% | 50.0% | 4.47 | exposed |
| Develop new recipes for baked goods. | 30.0% | 20.0% | 50.0% | 3.31 | exposed |
| Observe color of products being baked, and adjust oven temperatures, humidity, or conveyor speeds accordingly. | 20.0% | 17.5% | 62.5% | 4.37 | untouched |
| Direct or coordinate bakery deliveries. | 20.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 3.97 | assisted |
| Operate slicing or wrapping machines. | 15.0% | 10.0% | 75.0% | 3.90 | untouched |
| Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary. | 13.9% | 11.1% | 75.0% | 4.46 | untouched |
| Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 4.46 | untouched |
| Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 4.34 | untouched |
| Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.62 | untouched |
| Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.42 | untouched |
| Set time and speed controls for mixing machines, blending machines, or steam kettles so that ingredients will be mixed or cooked according to instructions. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.36 | untouched |
| Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.36 | untouched |
| Roll, knead, cut, or shape dough to form sweet rolls, pie crusts, tarts, cookies, or other products. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.32 | untouched |
| Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.01 | untouched |
| Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.93 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.