AI exposure: Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
Set up, operate, or tend paper goods machines that perform a variety of functions, such as converting, sawing, corrugating, banding, wrapping, boxing, stitching, forming, or sealing paper or paperboard sheets into products.
Reading this score
computedAt 9.9% of weighted task load, Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders sits at the 14th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 83.2% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 14 tasks it averages 2.89 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Start machines and move controls to regulate tension on pressure rolls, to synchronize speed of..., at 33.3%. The least is Lift tote boxes of finished cartons, and dump cartons into feed hoppers, at 0.0%. A gap of 33.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within production occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 16.2% across the group's 107 roles, with 80 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.
What would move this score. Of 14 tasks, 3 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 11 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 0.57 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.89 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.29 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.18 | 0-3 |
| Context | 0.89 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 0.71 | 0-3 |
Task by task
14 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start machines and move controls to regulate tension on pressure rolls, to synchronize speed of machine components, and to adjust temperatures of glue or paraffin. | 33.3% | 16.7% | 50.0% | 4.17 | exposed |
| Observe operation of various machines to detect and correct machine malfunctions such as improper forming, glue flow, or pasteboard tension. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.43 | exposed |
| Monitor finished cartons as they drop from forming machines into rotating hoppers and into gravity feed chutes to prevent jamming. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.25 | exposed |
| Measure, space, and set saw blades, cutters, and perforators, according to product specifications. | 16.7% | 8.3% | 75.0% | 4.06 | untouched |
| Examine completed work to detect defects and verify conformance to work orders, and adjust machinery as necessary to correct production problems. | 15.0% | 10.0% | 75.0% | 4.66 | untouched |
| Disassemble machines to maintain, repair, or replace broken or worn parts, using hand or power tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.00 | untouched |
| Install attachments to machines for gluing, folding, printing, or cutting. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.39 | untouched |
| Cut products to specified dimensions, using hand or power cutters. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.35 | untouched |
| Place rolls of paper or cardboard on machine feed tracks, and thread paper through gluing, coating, and slitting rollers. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.33 | untouched |
| Adjust guide assemblies, forming bars, and folding mechanisms according to specifications, using hand tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.20 | untouched |
| Fill glue and paraffin reservoirs, and position rollers to dispense glue onto paperboard. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.06 | untouched |
| Stamp products with information such as dates, using hand stamps or automatic stamping devices. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.94 | untouched |
| Remove finished cores, and stack or place them on conveyors for transfer to other work areas. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.93 | untouched |
| Lift tote boxes of finished cartons, and dump cartons into feed hoppers. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.93 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.