The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 51-4111.00 · Job Zone 3

AI exposure: Tool and Die Makers

Analyze specifications, lay out metal stock, set up and operate machine tools, and fit and assemble parts to make and repair dies, cutting tools, jigs, fixtures, gauges, and machinists' hand tools.

Reading this score

computed

At 15.5% of weighted task load, Tool and Die Makers sits at the 24th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 76.0% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 17 tasks it averages 2.38 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Visualize and compute dimensions, sizes, shapes, and tolerances of assemblies, based on..., at 55.0%. The least is Set up and operate drill presses to drill and tap holes in parts for assembly, at 0.0%. A gap of 55.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within production occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 16.2% across the group's 107 roles, with 57 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 17 tasks, 5 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 12 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.990-4
Embodiment2.380-3
Presence0.170-3
Accountability0.560-3
Context1.200-3
Verification cost1.100-3

Task by task

17 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Visualize and compute dimensions, sizes, shapes, and tolerances of assemblies, based on specifications.55.0%20.0%25.0%4.21exposed
Select metals to be used from a range of metals and alloys, based on properties such as hardness or heat tolerance.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.05exposed
Study blueprints, sketches, models, or specifications to plan sequences of operations for fabricating tools, dies, or assemblies.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.19exposed
Design jigs, fixtures, and templates for use as work aids in the fabrication of parts or products.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.77exposed
Develop and design new tools and dies, using computer-aided design software.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.69exposed
Set pyrometer controls of heat-treating furnaces and feed or place parts, tools, or assemblies into furnaces to harden.18.3%6.7%75.0%3.60untouched
Set up and operate conventional or computer numerically controlled machine tools such as lathes, milling machines, or grinders to cut, bore, grind, or otherwise shape parts to prescribed dimensions and finishes.15.8%9.2%75.0%4.37untouched
Inspect finished dies for smoothness, contour conformity, and defects.15.0%10.0%75.0%4.11untouched
Conduct test runs with completed tools or dies to ensure that parts meet specifications, making adjustments as necessary.13.3%11.7%75.0%3.93untouched
File, grind, shim, and adjust different parts to properly fit them together.8.3%4.2%87.5%3.98untouched
Smooth and polish flat and contoured surfaces of parts or tools, using scrapers, abrasive stones, files, emery cloths, or power grinders.5.7%2.6%91.7%3.95untouched
Verify dimensions, alignments, and clearances of finished parts for conformance to specifications, using measuring instruments such as calipers, gauge blocks, micrometers, or dial indicators.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.55untouched
Fit and assemble parts to make, repair, or modify dies, jigs, gauges, and tools, using machine tools, hand tools, or welders.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.12untouched
Lift, position, and secure machined parts on surface plates or worktables, using hoists, vises, v-blocks, or angle plates.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.99untouched
Measure, mark, and scribe metal or plastic stock to lay out machining, using instruments such as protractors, micrometers, scribes, or rulers.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.94untouched
Cut, shape, and trim blanks or blocks to specified lengths or shapes, using power saws, power shears, rules, and hand tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.70untouched
Set up and operate drill presses to drill and tap holes in parts for assembly.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.69untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.