The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 51-9124.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

Set up, operate, or tend spraying or rolling machines to coat or paint any of a wide variety of products, including glassware, cloth, ceramics, metal, plastic, paper, or wood, with lacquer, silver, copper, rubber, varnish, glaze, enamel, oil, or rust-proofing materials. Includes painters of transportation vehicles such as painters in auto body repair facilities.

Reading this score

computed

At 9.0% of weighted task load, Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders sits at the 12th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 86.4% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 29 tasks it averages 2.80 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Record operational data on specified forms, at 73.3%. The least is Sand and apply sealer to properly dried finish, at 0.0%. A gap of 73.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within production occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 16.2% across the group's 107 roles, with 88 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 29 tasks, 3 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 26 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.520-4
Embodiment2.800-3
Presence0.160-3
Accountability0.240-3
Context0.880-3
Verification cost0.810-3

Task by task

29 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Record operational data on specified forms.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.03exposed
Adjust controls on infrared ovens, heat lamps, portable ventilators, or exhaust units to speed the drying of surfaces between coats.33.3%16.7%50.0%exposed
Observe machine gauges and equipment operation to detect defects or deviations from standards, and make adjustments as necessary.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.95exposed
Turn dials, handwheels, valves, or switches to regulate conveyor speeds, machine temperature, air pressure and circulation, and the flow or spray of coatings or paints.27.8%13.9%58.3%4.04untouched
Monitor painting operations to identify flaws, such as blisters or streaks, and correct their causes.23.8%13.8%62.5%4.29untouched
Start and stop operation of machines, using levers or buttons.16.7%8.3%75.0%4.15untouched
Determine paint flow, viscosity, and coating quality by performing visual inspections, or by using viscometers.16.7%8.3%75.0%4.06untouched
Attach hoses or nozzles to machines, using wrenches and pliers, and make adjustments to obtain the proper dispersion of spray.16.7%8.3%75.0%4.05untouched
Operate auxiliary machines or equipment used in coating or painting processes.16.7%8.3%75.0%4.07untouched
Dispose of hazardous waste in an appropriate manner.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.42untouched
Hold or position spray guns to direct spray onto articles.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.41untouched
Spray prepared surfaces with specified amounts of primers and decorative or finish coatings.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.30untouched
Disassemble, clean, and reassemble sprayers or power equipment, using solvents, wire brushes, and cloths.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.28untouched
Fill hoppers, reservoirs, troughs, or pans with material used to coat, paint, or spray, using conveyors or pails.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.28untouched
Clean equipment and work areas.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.26untouched
Apply rust-resistant undercoats and caulk and seal seams.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.15untouched
Examine, measure, weigh, or test sample products to ensure conformance to specifications.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.84untouched
Buff and wax the finished paintwork.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.75untouched
Use brush to hand-paint areas in need of retouching or unreachable with a spray gun.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.59untouched
Thread or feed items or products through or around machine rollers and dryers.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.26untouched
Weigh or measure chemicals, coatings, or paints before adding them to machines.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.18untouched
Remove materials, parts, or workpieces from painting or coating machines, using hand tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.07untouched
Operate lifting or moving devices to move equipment or materials to access areas to be painted.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.98untouched
Set up portable equipment, such as ventilators, exhaust units, ladders, or scaffolding.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.87untouched
Apply primer over any repairs made to surfaces.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched
Fill small dents or scratches with body fillers and smooth surfaces to prepare for painting.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched
Mix paints to match color specifications or original colors, stirring or thinning paints, using spatulas or power mixing equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched
Remove grease, dirt, paint, or rust from surfaces in preparation for paint application, using abrasives, solvents, brushes, blowtorches, washing tanks, or sandblasters.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched
Sand and apply sealer to properly dried finish.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean. 6 task(s) lacked a usable O*NET weight and are shown but excluded from the weighting.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.