The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 51-6093.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Upholsterers

Make, repair, or replace upholstery for household furniture or transportation vehicles.

Reading this score

computed

At 11.8% of weighted task load, Upholsterers sits at the 18th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 83.6% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 22 tasks it averages 2.45 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Maintain records of time required to perform each job, at 73.3%. The least is Make, repair, or replace automobile upholstery and convertible and vinyl tops, at 0.0%. A gap of 73.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within production occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 16.2% across the group's 107 roles, with 70 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 22 tasks, 5 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 17 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.800-4
Embodiment2.450-3
Presence0.140-3
Accountability0.180-3
Context1.090-3
Verification cost0.700-3

Task by task

22 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Maintain records of time required to perform each job.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.08exposed
Design upholstery cover patterns and cutting plans, based on sketches, customer descriptions, or blueprints.60.0%15.0%25.0%4.09exposed
Collaborate with interior designers to decorate rooms and coordinate furnishing fabrics.60.0%15.0%25.0%3.75exposed
Discuss upholstery fabrics, colors, and styles with customers, and provide cost estimates.58.3%29.2%12.5%4.02exposed
Read work orders, and apply knowledge and experience with materials to determine types and amounts of materials required to cover workpieces.55.0%20.0%25.0%4.35exposed
Examine furniture frames, upholstery, springs, and webbing to locate defects.10.0%15.0%75.0%4.20untouched
Fit, install, and secure material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement, or staples.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.51untouched
Measure and cut new covering materials, using patterns and measuring and cutting instruments, following sketches and design specifications.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.49untouched
Build furniture up with loose fiber stuffing, cotton, felt, or foam padding to form smooth, rounded surfaces.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.45untouched
Make, restore, or create custom upholstered furniture, using hand tools and knowledge of fabrics and upholstery methods.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.36untouched
Adjust or replace webbing, padding, or springs, and secure them in place.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.19untouched
Sew rips or tears in material, or create tufting, using needles and thread.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.10untouched
Remove covering, webbing, padding, or defective springs from workpieces, using hand tools such as hammers and tack pullers.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.06untouched
Attach fasteners, grommets, buttons, buckles, ornamental trim, and other accessories to covers or frames, using hand tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.05untouched
Repair furniture frames and refinish exposed wood.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.85untouched
Interweave and fasten strips of webbing to the backs and undersides of furniture, using small hand tools and fasteners.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.82untouched
Draw cutting lines on material following patterns, templates, sketches, or blueprints, using chalk, pencils, paint, or other methods.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.27untouched
Stretch webbing and fabric, using webbing stretchers.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.23untouched
Operate sewing machines or sew upholstery by hand to seam cushions and join various sections of covering material.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.21untouched
Pick up and deliver furniture.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.95untouched
Attach bindings or apply solutions to edges of cut material to prevent raveling.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.84untouched
Make, repair, or replace automobile upholstery and convertible and vinyl tops, using knowledge of fabric and upholstery methods.0.0%0.0%100.0%2.99untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.