The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 51-1011.00 · Job Zone 3

AI exposure: First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

Directly supervise and coordinate the activities of production and operating workers, such as inspectors, precision workers, machine setters and operators, assemblers, fabricators, and plant and system operators. Excludes team or work leaders.

Reading this score

computed

36.6% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers at the 64th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.4 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 20 tasks it averages 1.82 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Requisition materials, supplies, equipment parts, or repair services, at 80.0%. The least is Enforce safety and sanitation regulations, at 6.7%. A gap of 73.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within production occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 107 roles in the group is 16.1%, and only 0 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 20 tasks, 12 are currently banded exposed, 3 assisted and 5 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take systems being given deeper access to the organisation's own records and history, which is already happening. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Task by task

20 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Requisition materials, supplies, equipment parts, or repair services.80.0%20.0%0.0%3.72exposed
Keep records of employees' attendance and hours worked.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.23exposed
Maintain operations data, such as time, production, and cost records, and prepare management reports of production results.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.82exposed
Confer with other supervisors to coordinate operations and activities within or between departments.60.0%15.0%25.0%4.15exposed
Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.55.0%20.0%25.0%4.20exposed
Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.89exposed
Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.88exposed
Plan and develop new products and production processes.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.12exposed
Recommend or implement measures to motivate employees and to improve production methods, equipment performance, product quality, or efficiency.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.82exposed
Recommend or execute personnel actions, such as hirings, evaluations, or promotions.40.0%35.0%25.0%3.63exposed
Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.22exposed
Observe work and monitor gauges, dials, and other indicators to ensure that operators conform to production or processing standards.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.02exposed
Evaluate employee performance.25.0%50.0%25.0%4.00assisted
Confer with management or subordinates to resolve worker problems, complaints, or grievances.23.3%26.7%50.0%3.99assisted
Direct and coordinate the activities of employees engaged in the production or processing of goods, such as inspectors, machine setters, or fabricators.20.0%30.0%50.0%4.02assisted
Inspect materials, products, or equipment to detect defects or malfunctions.13.3%11.7%75.0%4.23untouched
Interpret specifications, blueprints, job orders, and company policies and procedures for workers.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.04untouched
Conduct employee training in equipment operations or work and safety procedures, or assign employee training to experienced workers.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.01untouched
Set up and adjust machines and equipment.7.5%5.0%87.5%3.63untouched
Enforce safety and sanitation regulations.6.7%18.3%75.0%4.48untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability2.420-4
Embodiment1.120-3
Presence0.900-3
Accountability1.070-3
Context1.820-3
Verification cost1.380-3

What this means in practice

Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.