The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
List

AI proof jobs that need a degree

O*NET Job Zone 4 or 5, which is a four year degree or more, outside the exposed band, ranked from the lowest exposed share upward. Release v2026.Q3, capability reference date 2026-09-15, built on O*NET 31.0.

A degree protects least where the work is words and numbers on a screen, and most where it comes with a licence, a patient or a site. This is the second kind.

#OccupationExposedAssistedMedian payRank of 923Band
1Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons4.1%12.3%$352,220887untouched
2Prosthodontists4.6%10.1%$311,180882untouched
3Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates8.2%10.7%$153,990823untouched
4Optometrists9.3%22.2%$136,570809untouched
5Dentists, General10.0%13.4%$170,950794untouched
6Anesthesiologist Assistants10.2%11.1%$135,880791untouched
7Nurse Anesthetists10.7%15.1%$236,590784untouched
8Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians11.9%27.3%$265,930758untouched
9Orthotists and Prosthetists12.2%17.9%$81,110752untouched
10Urologists13.0%21.7%$265,930734untouched
11Acupuncturists13.2%19.7%$76,040729untouched
12Histotechnologists13.5%15.8%n/a727untouched
13Orthodontists14.0%26.9%$289,140721untouched
14Anesthesiologists14.3%24.5%$391,490718untouched
15Critical Care Nurses15.0%23.6%$97,550709untouched
16Pediatric Surgeons15.9%25.8%$559,030690untouched
17Veterinarians16.1%20.7%$130,100687untouched
18Low Vision Therapists, Orientation and Mobility Specialists, and Vision Rehabilitation Therapists16.1%27.4%$100,330685untouched
19Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric16.2%26.0%$358,550681untouched
20Cardiologists16.2%23.8%$496,010680untouched
21Substitute Teachers, Short-Term16.3%13.5%$41,670677untouched
22Pediatricians, General16.4%28.6%$210,040674untouched
23Emergency Medicine Physicians16.5%30.1%$335,550668untouched
24Midwives16.8%25.9%$65,790665untouched
25Clinical Neuropsychologists16.8%27.2%$110,840664untouched
26Administrative Law Judges, Adjudicators, and Hearing Officers17.3%19.3%$117,860658untouched
27Acute Care Nurses17.4%27.4%$97,550655untouched
28Dermatologists17.6%26.6%$328,730652untouched
29Orthoptists17.6%29.0%$115,210651untouched
30Podiatrists17.6%22.1%$160,300650untouched
31Obstetricians and Gynecologists17.7%27.2%$292,910648untouched
32Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric17.9%27.7%$300,080647untouched
33Exercise Physiologists18.1%23.3%$59,460643untouched
34Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators18.2%23.7%$75,530640untouched
35Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists18.4%23.5%n/a630untouched
36General Internal Medicine Physicians18.5%30.9%$256,560629untouched
37Nurse Midwives18.6%24.9%$134,040627untouched
38Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors19.1%24.2%n/a618untouched
39Neurologists19.2%32.5%$248,560617assisted
40Family Medicine Physicians19.2%31.4%$244,180614assisted

How to read this

Exposed is the share of an occupation’s weighted task load that a generally available AI system can produce today with little structural friction. Assisted is work it can produce but cannot finish alone, because somebody has to be present, accountable, or because checking the output costs as much as doing the work. Untouched is work it cannot produce at all.

Every figure here is computed from task level ratings, and every occupation links to the page that shows its own tasks. If a rating looks wrong, the task is the level to argue at: how this is measured.

Questions about this list

What tops the list?

Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons, with 4.1% of its weighted task load exposed to current AI systems, 12.3% assisted and 83.6% untouched. Release v2026.Q3.

How is this list decided?

O*NET Job Zone 4 or 5, which is a four year degree or more, outside the exposed band, ranked from the lowest exposed share upward. Scores come from rating every standardised work activity in each occupation against a published rubric, not from rating the occupation as a whole.

Does a high score mean the job disappears?

No. Exposure is not displacement. This measures what current systems can produce and what structurally stands in the way, not what an employer will do about it.

Other cuts of the same data

Exposure is not displacement. This index measures what current systems can produce and what stands in the way. It does not forecast job losses, and it models no adoption, employment or wage effect.