The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
List

Skilled trades least exposed to AI

SOC major groups 47 and 49, construction and extraction, installation, maintenance and repair, ranked from the lowest exposed share upward. Release v2026.Q3, capability reference date 2026-09-15, built on O*NET 31.0.

Embodiment is the hardest friction in the rubric and this is where it lives. The bottleneck is not intelligence, it is a hand in an awkward space.

#OccupationExposedAssistedMedian payRank of 923Band
1Stonemasons0.0%0.0%$57,390922untouched
2Plasterers and Stucco Masons0.0%0.0%$57,660921untouched
3Helpers--Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons0.0%0.0%$40,470920untouched
4Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons0.0%0.0%$61,290919untouched
5Roustabouts, Oil and Gas0.5%0.7%$46,960917untouched
6Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers0.8%1.9%$57,020915untouched
7Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators1.0%1.2%$70,070914untouched
8Highway Maintenance Workers1.2%2.0%$50,260911untouched
9Floor Sanders and Finishers1.2%2.5%$50,440910untouched
10Helpers--Roofers1.3%1.9%$44,160909untouched
11Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators1.4%2.7%$53,340908untouched
12Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard Tiles1.5%2.0%$56,460907untouched
13Rock Splitters, Quarry1.6%1.4%$48,740906untouched
14Roofers1.7%1.2%$55,440905untouched
15Pile Driver Operators2.0%3.0%$73,300904untouched
16Helpers--Electricians2.2%1.9%$42,670903untouched
17Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers2.2%2.4%$58,930902untouched
18Helpers--Carpenters2.5%1.4%$43,780901untouched
19Structural Iron and Steel Workers2.6%2.2%$62,780900untouched
20Helpers--Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters2.6%1.4%$42,360899untouched
21Roof Bolters, Mining2.8%4.5%$78,540898untouched
22Terrazzo Workers and Finishers2.8%1.0%$76,170897untouched
23Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall3.0%2.3%$49,120895untouched
24Tapers3.0%2.8%$68,270894untouched
25Helpers--Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters3.3%2.2%$47,550893untouched
26Pipelayers3.6%4.1%$49,000891untouched
27Musical Instrument Repairers and Tuners3.8%3.0%$46,420890untouched
28Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers4.0%2.7%$58,970889untouched
29Hazardous Materials Removal Workers4.2%3.9%$49,450885untouched
30Tire Repairers and Changers4.4%3.1%$37,710884untouched
31Boilermakers4.6%4.8%$76,410881untouched
32Automotive Glass Installers and Repairers4.7%2.3%$47,630880untouched
33Millwrights4.7%3.3%$65,700879untouched
34Fence Erectors4.8%4.3%$47,980876untouched
35Glaziers5.0%3.7%$57,080875untouched
36Motorcycle Mechanics5.0%4.1%$48,580874untouched
37Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas5.1%4.2%$67,890873untouched
38Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers5.1%5.9%$95,320872untouched
39Construction Laborers5.1%3.4%$47,120871untouched
40Locksmiths and Safe Repairers5.4%2.0%$51,320868untouched

How to read this

Exposed is the share of an occupation’s weighted task load that a generally available AI system can produce today with little structural friction. Assisted is work it can produce but cannot finish alone, because somebody has to be present, accountable, or because checking the output costs as much as doing the work. Untouched is work it cannot produce at all.

Every figure here is computed from task level ratings, and every occupation links to the page that shows its own tasks. If a rating looks wrong, the task is the level to argue at: how this is measured.

Other cuts of the same data

Exposure is not displacement. This index measures what current systems can produce and what stands in the way. It does not forecast job losses, and it models no adoption, employment or wage effect.