AI exposure in transportation and material moving occupations
52 occupations, 914 tasks, scored against the capability frontier of 2026-09-15. This family ranks 11 of 22 by median exposed share.
Reading this family
computedThe median transportation and material moving occupation has 24.3% of its weighted task load in work current AI systems can already produce, which is 0.0 points below the median across every occupation in the index. Weighted by how many people actually do these jobs, the figure is 20.4%, across 12,968,500 US workers. 8 of these occupations fall in the exposed band, 3 in assisted and 41 in untouched.
What holds the line across this family is embodiment, at 1.99 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions here. In plain terms the obstacle is a body in a place. The work happens to physical objects in physical rooms. No amount of model capability reaches it, because the bottleneck is hands rather than reasoning.
The spread inside the family is wider than the gap between families, which is the usual pattern and the reason this index does not publish a single number per group. Traffic Technicians sits at 62.4%. Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators sits at 4.1%. Both are transportation and material moving occupations, and 58.3 points separate them.
Where the family score comes from
judgedMeans across all 914 tasks in this family. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 1.57 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 1.99 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.96 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.97 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.38 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.36 | 0-3 |
Every transportation and material moving occupation
See them on the chart| Occupation | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Median pay | Tasks | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traffic Technicians | 62.4% | 18.1% | 19.5% | $59,090 | 22 | exposed |
| Recycling Coordinators | 43.3% | 22.2% | 34.5% | n/a | 23 | exposed |
| Driver/Sales Workers | 41.4% | 16.4% | 42.2% | $38,770 | 11 | exposed |
| Bridge and Lock Tenders | 41.0% | 17.6% | 41.4% | $57,700 | 18 | exposed |
| Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters | 41.0% | 20.6% | 38.5% | $78,000 | 20 | exposed |
| Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors | 40.4% | 16.9% | 42.7% | $58,170 | 6 | exposed |
| First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants | 36.2% | 26.3% | 37.5% | n/a | 19 | exposed |
| Light Truck Drivers | 35.9% | 13.8% | 50.3% | $44,860 | 13 | untouched |
| Subway and Streetcar Operators | 33.4% | 22.1% | 44.6% | $86,380 | 10 | assisted |
| Transportation Inspectors | 32.8% | 16.0% | 51.2% | $92,100 | 17 | untouched |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 32.7% | 23.7% | 43.6% | n/a | 22 | exposed |
| Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators | 32.6% | 16.1% | 51.3% | $77,320 | 13 | untouched |
| First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 31.9% | 25.0% | 43.1% | n/a | 24 | assisted |
| Flight Attendants | 31.7% | 12.6% | 55.7% | $63,580 | 25 | untouched |
| Air Traffic Controllers | 31.3% | 23.1% | 45.6% | $148,080 | 23 | assisted |
| Passenger Attendants | 30.0% | 9.8% | 60.2% | $37,720 | 12 | untouched |
| Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels | 29.9% | 19.2% | 50.9% | $92,460 | 30 | untouched |
| Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity | 29.9% | 13.9% | 56.3% | $59,050 | 14 | untouched |
| Taxi Drivers | 29.4% | 14.4% | 56.2% | $42,100 | 16 | untouched |
| Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers | 28.4% | 14.5% | 57.1% | $61,770 | 14 | untouched |
| Commercial Pilots | 26.0% | 21.1% | 52.8% | $123,220 | 24 | untouched |
| Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs | 25.8% | 14.9% | 59.4% | $37,290 | 26 | untouched |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 25.1% | 13.5% | 61.5% | $58,640 | 29 | untouched |
| Ship Engineers | 24.7% | 15.9% | 59.4% | $109,530 | 17 | untouched |
| Aircraft Service Attendants | 24.5% | 13.2% | 62.3% | $40,450 | 11 | untouched |
| Airfield Operations Specialists | 24.3% | 20.1% | 55.6% | $56,850 | 27 | untouched |
| Locomotive Engineers | 24.2% | 17.2% | 58.5% | $81,410 | 15 | untouched |
| Aviation Inspectors | 23.8% | 15.0% | 61.2% | $92,100 | 13 | untouched |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 23.4% | 9.4% | 67.2% | $37,330 | 30 | untouched |
| Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers | 21.4% | 22.4% | 56.1% | $232,140 | 24 | untouched |
| Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders | 21.1% | 10.8% | 68.1% | $58,870 | 19 | untouched |
| Transportation Vehicle, Equipment and Systems Inspectors, Except Aviation | 21.0% | 20.9% | 58.2% | $92,100 | 20 | untouched |
| Bus Drivers, School | 20.8% | 13.6% | 65.6% | $47,920 | 17 | untouched |
| Automotive and Watercraft Service Attendants | 18.4% | 6.6% | 75.0% | $35,670 | 14 | untouched |
| Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers | 18.2% | 11.5% | 70.3% | $60,600 | 23 | untouched |
| Wellhead Pumpers | 18.0% | 10.5% | 71.5% | $69,960 | 14 | untouched |
| Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors | 16.7% | 12.3% | 71.0% | $49,690 | 14 | untouched |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 16.4% | 7.0% | 76.6% | $40,240 | 13 | untouched |
| Conveyor Operators and Tenders | 16.2% | 10.8% | 73.0% | $42,420 | 23 | untouched |
| Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers | 15.3% | 11.5% | 73.2% | $68,840 | 25 | untouched |
| Motorboat Operators | 14.3% | 16.9% | 68.8% | $47,520 | 16 | untouched |
| Crane and Tower Operators | 12.0% | 8.7% | 79.3% | $68,080 | 11 | untouched |
| Machine Feeders and Offbearers | 11.3% | 5.1% | 83.5% | $41,220 | 13 | untouched |
| Parking Attendants | 11.3% | 9.2% | 79.5% | $35,150 | 15 | untouched |
| Dredge Operators | 10.2% | 5.5% | 84.3% | $49,640 | 6 | untouched |
| Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment | 9.6% | 6.7% | 83.6% | $35,830 | 20 | untouched |
| Recycling and Reclamation Workers | 8.7% | 4.2% | 87.1% | $40,240 | 14 | untouched |
| Hoist and Winch Operators | 8.2% | 4.6% | 87.3% | $56,450 | 13 | untouched |
| Packers and Packagers, Hand | 8.1% | 2.9% | 89.1% | $36,280 | 12 | untouched |
| Sailors and Marine Oilers | 7.5% | 5.1% | 87.4% | $51,520 | 24 | untouched |
| Ambulance Drivers and Attendants, Except Emergency Medical Technicians | 4.8% | 7.2% | 88.1% | $35,450 | 11 | untouched |
| Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators | 4.1% | 3.1% | 92.8% | $46,420 | 9 | untouched |
Exposure is not displacement. These figures say what current systems can produce and what stands in the way. They do not say anyone will stop paying a person to do the work. How the score is built.