AI exposure: Bus Drivers, School
Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting.
Reading this score
computedAt 20.8% of weighted task load, Bus Drivers, School sits at the 38th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 65.6% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 17 tasks it averages 2.24 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked,..., at 80.0%. The least is Make minor repairs to vehicles, at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within transportation and material moving occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 24.3% across the group's 52 roles, with 32 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.
What would move this score. Of 17 tasks, 4 are currently banded exposed, 2 assisted and 11 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 1.38 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.24 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 1.41 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 1.26 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.47 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.62 | 0-3 |
Task by task
17 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption. | 80.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 4.45 | exposed |
| Record bus routes. | 76.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 4.29 | exposed |
| Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions. | 75.8% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 4.23 | exposed |
| Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 4.87 | exposed |
| Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios. | 30.0% | 45.0% | 25.0% | 4.31 | assisted |
| Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration. | 15.0% | 35.0% | 50.0% | 3.93 | assisted |
| Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures. | 13.3% | 11.7% | 75.0% | 4.47 | untouched |
| Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 4.93 | untouched |
| Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules. | 6.7% | 18.3% | 75.0% | 4.78 | untouched |
| Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities. | 6.7% | 18.3% | 75.0% | 4.71 | untouched |
| Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.98 | untouched |
| Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.94 | untouched |
| Escort small children across roads and highways. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.77 | untouched |
| Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.59 | untouched |
| Keep bus interiors clean for students. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.24 | untouched |
| Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.13 | untouched |
| Make minor repairs to vehicles. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.25 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.