AI exposure: Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers
Operate or monitor railroad track switches or locomotive instruments. May couple or uncouple rolling stock to make up or break up trains. Watch for and relay traffic signals. May inspect couplings, air hoses, journal boxes, and hand brakes. May watch for dragging equipment or obstacles on rights-of-way.
Reading this score
computedAt 15.3% of weighted task load, Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers sits at the 24th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 73.2% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 25 tasks it averages 2.54 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service..., at 73.3%. The least is Refuel and lubricate engines, at 0.0%. A gap of 73.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within transportation and material moving occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 24.3% across the group's 52 roles, with 39 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.
What would move this score. Of 25 tasks, 6 are currently banded exposed, 2 assisted and 17 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 1.08 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.54 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 1.20 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 1.44 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.54 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.98 | 0-3 |
Task by task
25 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service needed. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.89 | exposed |
| Receive oral or written instructions from yardmasters or yard conductors indicating track assignments and cars to be switched. | 60.0% | 15.0% | 25.0% | 4.38 | exposed |
| Check to see that trains are equipped with supplies such as fuel, water, and sand. | 55.0% | 20.0% | 25.0% | 4.48 | exposed |
| Observe train signals along routes and verify their meanings for engineers. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 4.64 | exposed |
| Monitor trains as they go around curves to detect dragging equipment and smoking journal boxes. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.42 | exposed |
| Monitor oil, temperature, and pressure gauges on dashboards to determine if engines are operating safely and efficiently. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.58 | exposed |
| Inspect tracks, cars, and engines for defects and to determine service needs, sending engines and cars for repairs as necessary. | 25.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 4.26 | assisted |
| Pull or push track switches to reroute cars. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 4.57 | assisted |
| Conduct brake tests to determine the condition of brakes on trains. | 15.0% | 10.0% | 75.0% | 4.46 | untouched |
| Observe tracks from left sides of locomotives to detect obstructions on tracks. | 8.3% | 16.7% | 75.0% | 4.26 | untouched |
| Operate and drive locomotives, diesel switch engines, dinkey engines, flatcars, and railcars in train yards and at industrial sites. | 3.3% | 21.7% | 75.0% | 4.60 | untouched |
| Start diesel engines to warm engines before runs. | 3.3% | 21.7% | 75.0% | 4.26 | untouched |
| Operate locomotives in emergency situations. | 3.3% | 21.7% | 75.0% | 3.98 | untouched |
| Ride atop cars that have been shunted, and turn handwheels to control speeds or stop cars at specified positions. | 3.3% | 21.7% | 75.0% | 3.66 | untouched |
| Signal locomotive engineers to start or stop trains when coupling or uncoupling cars, using hand signals, lanterns, or radio communication. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.83 | untouched |
| Inspect couplings, air hoses, journal boxes, and handbrakes to ensure that they are securely fastened and functioning properly. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.59 | untouched |
| Raise levers to couple and uncouple cars for makeup and breakup of trains. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.58 | untouched |
| Observe signals from other crew members so that work activities can be coordinated. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.57 | untouched |
| Signal other workers to set brakes and to throw track switches when switching cars from trains to way stations. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.24 | untouched |
| Connect air hoses to cars, using wrenches. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.03 | untouched |
| Make minor repairs to couplings, air hoses, and journal boxes, using hand tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.84 | untouched |
| Inspect locomotives to detect damaged or worn parts. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.74 | untouched |
| Climb ladders to tops of cars to set brakes. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.45 | untouched |
| Set flares, flags, lanterns, or torpedoes in front and at rear of trains during emergency stops to warn oncoming trains. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.44 | untouched |
| Refuel and lubricate engines. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.40 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.