AI exposure in protective service occupations
26 occupations, 519 tasks, scored against the capability frontier of 2026-09-15. This family ranks 14 of 22 by median exposed share.
Reading this family
computedThe median protective service occupation has 18.6% of its weighted task load in work current AI systems can already produce, which is 5.7 points below the median across every occupation in the index. Weighted by how many people actually do these jobs, the figure is 19.7%, across 3,755,910 US workers. 1 of these occupations fall in the exposed band, 4 in assisted and 21 in untouched.
What holds the line across this family is context, at 2.02 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions here. In plain terms the obstacle is knowing things a model cannot hold. The work runs on private, tacit or real-time organisational knowledge. This is the friction most likely to erode, because context is a plumbing problem rather than a law.
The spread inside the family is wider than the gap between families, which is the usual pattern and the reason this index does not publish a single number per group. First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers sits at 32.5%. Firefighters sits at 10.0%. Both are protective service occupations, and 22.5 points separate them.
Where the family score comes from
judgedMeans across all 519 tasks in this family. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 1.54 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 1.78 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 1.91 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 1.56 | 0-3 |
| Context | 2.02 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 2.00 | 0-3 |
Every protective service occupation
See them on the chart| Occupation | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Median pay | Tasks | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers | 32.5% | 24.7% | 42.8% | $55,940 | 21 | exposed |
| Intelligence Analysts | 32.4% | 33.2% | 34.4% | $93,790 | 21 | assisted |
| Customs and Border Protection Officers | 29.1% | 21.9% | 49.0% | $76,210 | 11 | assisted |
| Parking Enforcement Workers | 28.5% | 23.7% | 47.8% | $46,730 | 20 | assisted |
| First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives | 26.4% | 18.8% | 54.8% | $106,040 | 20 | untouched |
| Private Detectives and Investigators | 23.2% | 27.1% | 49.7% | $51,220 | 14 | assisted |
| Security Guards | 22.4% | 15.8% | 61.8% | $38,020 | 14 | untouched |
| Retail Loss Prevention Specialists | 21.3% | 25.8% | 52.9% | $42,540 | 21 | untouched |
| Gambling Surveillance Officers and Gambling Investigators | 21.1% | 24.0% | 54.8% | $43,370 | 8 | untouched |
| First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers | 20.6% | 23.8% | 55.6% | $93,530 | 30 | untouched |
| Crossing Guards and Flaggers | 20.6% | 17.1% | 62.4% | $38,100 | 12 | untouched |
| Transportation Security Screeners | 19.5% | 23.2% | 57.4% | $66,770 | 26 | untouched |
| School Bus Monitors | 18.9% | 13.3% | 67.8% | $35,100 | 18 | untouched |
| Forest Fire Inspectors and Prevention Specialists | 18.3% | 22.9% | 58.8% | $56,870 | 16 | untouched |
| First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers | 18.2% | 15.8% | 66.1% | $77,970 | 23 | untouched |
| Detectives and Criminal Investigators | 17.3% | 20.4% | 62.3% | $93,790 | 30 | untouched |
| Animal Control Workers | 17.2% | 11.7% | 71.1% | $45,660 | 16 | untouched |
| Fire Inspectors and Investigators | 16.5% | 19.8% | 63.7% | $75,920 | 30 | untouched |
| Transit and Railroad Police | 15.7% | 21.1% | 63.3% | $90,230 | 12 | untouched |
| Fish and Game Wardens | 15.3% | 15.3% | 69.3% | $74,060 | 23 | untouched |
| Bailiffs | 15.0% | 11.6% | 73.3% | $56,600 | 15 | untouched |
| Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers | 14.4% | 15.0% | 70.7% | $33,580 | 15 | untouched |
| Police Identification and Records Officers | 13.5% | 12.7% | 73.8% | $93,790 | 16 | untouched |
| Correctional Officers and Jailers | 13.4% | 14.5% | 72.1% | $58,940 | 27 | untouched |
| Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers | 12.4% | 15.5% | 72.1% | $76,210 | 30 | untouched |
| Firefighters | 10.0% | 10.7% | 79.3% | $59,280 | 30 | untouched |
Exposure is not displacement. These figures say what current systems can produce and what stands in the way. They do not say anyone will stop paying a person to do the work. How the score is built.