The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 33-1012.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives

Directly supervise and coordinate activities of members of police force.

Reading this score

computed

At 26.4% of weighted task load, First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives sits at the 48th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 54.8% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 20 tasks it averages 2.23 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Prepare work schedules and assign duties to subordinates, at 80.0%. The least is Prepare budgets and manage expenditures of department funds, at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within protective service occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 26 roles in the group is 18.3%, and only 4 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 20 tasks, 10 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 10 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take a change in who is permitted to sign the work, which is a question for regulators rather than for engineers. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.750-4
Embodiment1.200-3
Presence1.770-3
Accountability1.600-3
Context2.230-3
Verification cost2.050-3

Task by task

20 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Prepare work schedules and assign duties to subordinates.80.0%20.0%0.0%4.18exposed
Maintain logs, prepare reports, and direct the preparation, handling, and maintenance of departmental records.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.13exposed
Review contents of written orders to ensure adherence to legal requirements.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.00exposed
Develop, implement, and revise departmental policies and procedures.47.5%27.5%25.0%3.64exposed
Inform personnel of changes in regulations and policies, implications of new or amended laws, and new techniques of police work.45.0%30.0%25.0%4.09exposed
Meet with civic, educational, and community groups to develop community programs and events, and to discuss law enforcement subjects.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.64exposed
Prepare news releases and respond to police correspondence.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.46exposed
Requisition and issue equipment and supplies.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.40exposed
Explain police operations to subordinates to assist them in performing their job duties.26.7%23.3%50.0%4.13exposed
Train staff in proper police work procedures.26.7%23.3%50.0%4.07exposed
Cooperate with court personnel and officials from other law enforcement agencies and testify in court, as necessary.11.2%26.2%62.5%3.88untouched
Monitor and evaluate the job performance of subordinates, and authorize promotions and transfers.8.8%28.7%62.5%4.02untouched
Investigate and resolve personnel problems within organization and charges of misconduct against staff.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.14untouched
Inspect facilities, supplies, vehicles, and equipment to ensure conformance to standards.8.3%16.7%75.0%3.51untouched
Supervise and coordinate the investigation of criminal cases, offering guidance and expertise to investigators, and ensuring that procedures are conducted in accordance with laws and regulations.3.3%21.7%75.0%4.28untouched
Direct collection, preparation, and handling of evidence and personal property of prisoners.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.14untouched
Discipline staff for violation of department rules and regulations.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.06untouched
Conduct raids and order detention of witnesses and suspects for questioning.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.90untouched
Direct release or transfer of prisoners.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.48untouched
Prepare budgets and manage expenditures of department funds.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.13untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.