Bus Drivers, School vs Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
Bus Drivers, School carries the higher exposed share at 20.8% against 16.4%, a gap of 4.4 points. The difference is driven by friction: the work is similarly producible in both, and what differs is what stands in the way of letting a machine finish it. Release v2026.Q3.
| Occupation | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Capability | Friction | Median pay | Rank | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bus Drivers, School | 20.8% | 13.6% | 65.6% | 0.34 | 0.54 | $47,920 | 577 | untouched |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 16.4% | 7.0% | 76.6% | 0.23 | 0.31 | $40,240 | 672 | untouched |
What stands in the way, in each
Bus Drivers, School: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.34 of 1 and friction at 0.54 of 1.
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.23 of 1 and friction at 0.31 of 1.
Capability asks whether a generally available system can produce the work product at all. Friction asks what stops it finishing the job: physical work, being present, being accountable, unseen context, or the cost of checking the output. The rubric is here.
Read each in full
Exposure is not displacement. A higher score does not rank two jobs by how safe they are, and nothing here models adoption, employment or pay.