Tax Preparers vs Project Management Specialists
Tax Preparers carries the higher exposed share at 52.2% against 47.9%, a gap of 4.3 points. The difference is driven by capability: a current system can simply produce more of the first job's work product than the second's. Release v2026.Q3.
| Occupation | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Capability | Friction | Median pay | Rank | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax Preparers | 52.2% | 31.8% | 16.0% | 0.84 | 0.38 | $54,920 | 93 | exposed |
| Project Management Specialists | 47.9% | 27.3% | 24.8% | 0.75 | 0.39 | $102,320 | 127 | exposed |
What stands in the way, in each
Tax Preparers: the dominant friction is that it runs on knowledge of the organisation that a model cannot hold. Capability sits at 0.84 of 1 and friction at 0.38 of 1.
Project Management Specialists: the dominant friction is that it runs on knowledge of the organisation that a model cannot hold. Capability sits at 0.75 of 1 and friction at 0.39 of 1.
Capability asks whether a generally available system can produce the work product at all. Friction asks what stops it finishing the job: physical work, being present, being accountable, unseen context, or the cost of checking the output. The rubric is here.
Read each in full
Exposure is not displacement. A higher score does not rank two jobs by how safe they are, and nothing here models adoption, employment or pay.