Security Guards vs School Bus Monitors
Security Guards carries the higher exposed share at 22.4% against 18.9%, a gap of 3.5 points. The difference is driven by capability: a current system can simply produce more of the first job's work product than the second's. Release v2026.Q3.
| Occupation | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Capability | Friction | Median pay | Rank | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Security Guards | 22.4% | 15.8% | 61.8% | 0.38 | 0.56 | $38,020 | 539 | untouched |
| School Bus Monitors | 18.9% | 13.3% | 67.8% | 0.32 | 0.56 | $35,100 | 620 | untouched |
What stands in the way, in each
Security Guards: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.38 of 1 and friction at 0.56 of 1.
School Bus Monitors: the dominant friction is that someone has to actually be there for it to count. Capability sits at 0.32 of 1 and friction at 0.56 of 1.
Capability asks whether a generally available system can produce the work product at all. Friction asks what stops it finishing the job: physical work, being present, being accountable, unseen context, or the cost of checking the output. The rubric is here.
Read each in full
Exposure is not displacement. A higher score does not rank two jobs by how safe they are, and nothing here models adoption, employment or pay.