Light Truck Drivers vs First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators
Light Truck Drivers carries the higher exposed share at 35.9% against 32.7%, a gap of 3.2 points. The difference is driven by both capability and friction: the two jobs differ in what a system can produce and in what stops it, by roughly the same amount. Release v2026.Q3.
| Occupation | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Capability | Friction | Median pay | Rank | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light Truck Drivers | 35.9% | 13.8% | 50.3% | 0.50 | 0.37 | $44,860 | 348 | untouched |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 32.7% | 23.7% | 43.6% | 0.56 | 0.46 | n/a | 400 | exposed |
What stands in the way, in each
Light Truck Drivers: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.50 of 1 and friction at 0.37 of 1.
First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators: the dominant friction is that it runs on knowledge of the organisation that a model cannot hold. Capability sits at 0.56 of 1 and friction at 0.46 of 1.
Capability asks whether a generally available system can produce the work product at all. Friction asks what stops it finishing the job: physical work, being present, being accountable, unseen context, or the cost of checking the output. The rubric is here.
Read each in full
Exposure is not displacement. A higher score does not rank two jobs by how safe they are, and nothing here models adoption, employment or pay.