Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers vs Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers carries the higher exposed share at 25.1% against 21.1%, a gap of 3.9 points. The difference is driven by capability: a current system can simply produce more of the first job's work product than the second's. Release v2026.Q3.
| Occupation | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Capability | Friction | Median pay | Rank | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 25.1% | 13.5% | 61.5% | 0.39 | 0.43 | $58,640 | 491 | untouched |
| Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders | 21.1% | 10.8% | 68.1% | 0.32 | 0.39 | $58,870 | 569 | untouched |
What stands in the way, in each
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.39 of 1 and friction at 0.43 of 1.
Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.32 of 1 and friction at 0.39 of 1.
Capability asks whether a generally available system can produce the work product at all. Friction asks what stops it finishing the job: physical work, being present, being accountable, unseen context, or the cost of checking the output. The rubric is here.
Read each in full
Exposure is not displacement. A higher score does not rank two jobs by how safe they are, and nothing here models adoption, employment or pay.