The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Comparison

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers vs Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers carries the higher exposed share at 25.1% against 21.1%, a gap of 3.9 points. The difference is driven by capability: a current system can simply produce more of the first job's work product than the second's. Release v2026.Q3.

OccupationExposedAssistedUntouchedCapabilityFrictionMedian payRankBand
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers25.1%13.5%61.5%0.390.43$58,640491untouched
Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders21.1%10.8%68.1%0.320.39$58,870569untouched

What stands in the way, in each

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.39 of 1 and friction at 0.43 of 1.

Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.32 of 1 and friction at 0.39 of 1.

Capability asks whether a generally available system can produce the work product at all. Friction asks what stops it finishing the job: physical work, being present, being accountable, unseen context, or the cost of checking the output. The rubric is here.

Read each in full

Exposure is not displacement. A higher score does not rank two jobs by how safe they are, and nothing here models adoption, employment or pay.