Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers vs Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers carries the higher exposed share at 25.1% against 21.4%, a gap of 3.6 points. The difference is driven by friction: the work is similarly producible in both, and what differs is what stands in the way of letting a machine finish it. Release v2026.Q3.
| Occupation | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Capability | Friction | Median pay | Rank | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 25.1% | 13.5% | 61.5% | 0.39 | 0.43 | $58,640 | 491 | untouched |
| Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers | 21.4% | 22.4% | 56.1% | 0.44 | 0.64 | $232,140 | 560 | untouched |
What stands in the way, in each
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.39 of 1 and friction at 0.43 of 1.
Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers: the dominant friction is that it runs on knowledge of the organisation that a model cannot hold. Capability sits at 0.44 of 1 and friction at 0.64 of 1.
Capability asks whether a generally available system can produce the work product at all. Friction asks what stops it finishing the job: physical work, being present, being accountable, unseen context, or the cost of checking the output. The rubric is here.
Read each in full
Exposure is not displacement. A higher score does not rank two jobs by how safe they are, and nothing here models adoption, employment or pay.