The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Comparison

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers vs Bartenders

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers carries the higher exposed share at 36.3% against 22.3%, a gap of 14.0 points. The difference is driven by capability: a current system can simply produce more of the first job's work product than the second's. Release v2026.Q3.

OccupationExposedAssistedUntouchedCapabilityFrictionMedian payRankBand
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers36.3%18.1%45.6%0.540.41$44,080339exposed
Bartenders22.3%11.2%66.5%0.340.39$34,340540untouched

What stands in the way, in each

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers: the dominant friction is that it runs on knowledge of the organisation that a model cannot hold. Capability sits at 0.54 of 1 and friction at 0.41 of 1.

Bartenders: the dominant friction is that the work happens to physical things in physical places. Capability sits at 0.34 of 1 and friction at 0.39 of 1.

Capability asks whether a generally available system can produce the work product at all. Friction asks what stops it finishing the job: physical work, being present, being accountable, unseen context, or the cost of checking the output. The rubric is here.

Read each in full

Exposure is not displacement. A higher score does not rank two jobs by how safe they are, and nothing here models adoption, employment or pay.