The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 11-3071.04 · Job Zone 4

AI exposure: Supply Chain Managers

Direct or coordinate production, purchasing, warehousing, distribution, or financial forecasting services or activities to limit costs and improve accuracy, customer service, or safety. Examine existing procedures or opportunities for streamlining activities to meet product distribution needs. Direct the movement, storage, or processing of inventory.

Reading this score

computed

43.0% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Supply Chain Managers at the 77th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.7 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 30 tasks it averages 2.17 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Analyze information about supplier performance or procurement program success, at 80.0%. The least is Review or update supply chain practices in accordance with new or changing environmental..., at 10.0%. A gap of 70.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within management occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 56 roles in the group is 41.2%, and only 18 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 30 tasks, 26 are currently banded exposed, 2 assisted and 2 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take systems being given deeper access to the organisation's own records and history, which is already happening. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Task by task

30 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Analyze information about supplier performance or procurement program success.80.0%20.0%0.0%4.00exposed
Analyze inventories to determine how to increase inventory turns, reduce waste, or optimize customer service.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.06exposed
Monitor forecasts and quotas to identify changes and predict effects on supply chain activities.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.68exposed
Document physical supply chain processes, such as workflows, cycle times, position responsibilities, or system flows.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.39exposed
Diagram supply chain models to help facilitate discussions with customers.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.35exposed
Identify opportunities to reuse or recycle materials to minimize consumption of new materials, minimize waste, or to convert wastes to by-products.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.31exposed
Locate or select biodegradable, non-toxic, or other environmentally friendly raw materials for manufacturing processes.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.10exposed
Appraise vendor manufacturing capabilities through on-site observations or other measurements.55.0%20.0%25.0%2.81exposed
Determine appropriate equipment and staffing levels to load, unload, move, or store materials.52.5%22.5%25.0%4.24exposed
Manage activities related to strategic or tactical purchasing, material requirements planning, controlling inventory, warehousing, or receiving.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.20exposed
Develop procedures for coordination of supply chain management with other functional areas, such as sales, marketing, finance, production, or quality assurance.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.10exposed
Confer with supply chain planners to forecast demand or create supply plans that ensure availability of materials or products.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.06exposed
Meet with suppliers to discuss performance metrics, to provide performance feedback, or to discuss production forecasts or changes.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.95exposed
Identify or qualify new suppliers in collaboration with other departments, such as procurement, engineering, or quality assurance.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.61exposed
Forecast material costs or develop standard cost lists.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.38exposed
Define performance metrics for measurement, comparison, or evaluation of supply chain factors, such as product cost or quality.47.5%27.5%25.0%4.10exposed
Conduct or oversee the conduct of life cycle analyses to determine the environmental impacts of products, processes, or systems.40.0%35.0%25.0%2.67exposed
Investigate or review the carbon footprints and environmental performance records of current or potential storage and distribution service providers.40.0%35.0%25.0%2.54exposed
Evaluate and select information or other technology solutions to improve tracking and reporting of materials or products distribution, storage, or inventory.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.33exposed
Design or implement supply chains that support business strategies adapted to changing market conditions, new business opportunities, or cost reduction strategies.28.3%21.7%50.0%3.95exposed
Design, implement, or oversee product take back or reverse logistics programs to ensure products are recycled, reused, or responsibly disposed.28.3%21.7%50.0%3.59exposed
Develop or implement procedures or systems to evaluate or select suppliers.28.3%21.7%50.0%3.44exposed
Design or implement supply chains that support environmental policies.28.3%21.7%50.0%3.26exposed
Implement new or improved supply chain processes to improve efficiency or performance.26.7%23.3%50.0%4.10exposed
Participate in the coordination of engineering changes, product line extensions, or new product launches to ensure orderly and timely transitions in material or production flow.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.63exposed
Design or implement plant warehousing strategies for production materials or finished products.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.61exposed
Negotiate prices and terms with suppliers, vendors, or freight forwarders.23.3%26.7%50.0%4.05assisted
Monitor suppliers' activities to assess performance in meeting quality or delivery requirements.20.0%30.0%50.0%3.95assisted
Select transportation routes to maximize economy by combining shipments or consolidating warehousing and distribution.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.11untouched
Review or update supply chain practices in accordance with new or changing environmental policies, standards, regulations, or laws.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.26untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability2.700-4
Embodiment0.330-3
Presence0.730-3
Accountability1.030-3
Context2.170-3
Verification cost1.470-3

What this means in practice

Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.