AI exposure: Atmospheric and Space Scientists
Investigate atmospheric phenomena and interpret meteorological data, gathered by surface and air stations, satellites, and radar to prepare reports and forecasts for public and other uses. Includes weather analysts and forecasters whose functions require the detailed knowledge of meteorology.
Reading this score
computed42.9% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Atmospheric and Space Scientists at the 77th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.7 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.
What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 27 tasks it averages 1.82 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.
The most exposed thing this job does is Create visualizations to illustrate historical or future changes in the Earth's climate, at 86.7%. The least is Teach college-level courses on topics such as atmospheric and space science, meteorology, or..., at 11.7%. A gap of 75.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within life, physical and social science occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 60 roles in the group is 35.8%, and only 15 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 27 tasks, 20 are currently banded exposed, 3 assisted and 4 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take cheaper ways to verify output, since the cost of checking is currently doing more to hold this work in place than the cost of producing it. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Task by task
27 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Create visualizations to illustrate historical or future changes in the Earth's climate, using paleoclimate or climate geographic information systems (GIS) databases. | 86.7% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 3.08 | exposed |
| Prepare forecasts or briefings to meet the needs of industry, business, government, or other groups. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 4.12 | exposed |
| Interpret data, reports, maps, photographs, or charts to predict long- or short-range weather conditions, using computer models and knowledge of climate theory, physics, and mathematics. | 66.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 4.40 | exposed |
| Develop computer programs to collect meteorological data or to present meteorological information. | 63.1% | 28.5% | 8.3% | 4.00 | exposed |
| Speak to the public to discuss weather topics or answer questions. | 58.3% | 29.2% | 12.5% | 3.33 | exposed |
| Formulate predictions by interpreting environmental data, such as meteorological, atmospheric, oceanic, paleoclimate, climate, or related information. | 52.5% | 22.5% | 25.0% | 4.25 | exposed |
| Conduct numerical simulations of climate conditions to understand and predict global or regional weather patterns. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.42 | exposed |
| Conduct meteorological research into the processes or determinants of atmospheric phenomena, weather, or climate. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 4.33 | exposed |
| Broadcast weather conditions, forecasts, or severe weather warnings to the public via television, radio, or the Internet or provide this information to the news media. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 4.12 | exposed |
| Prepare weather reports or maps for analysis, distribution, or use in weather broadcasts, using computer graphics. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.94 | exposed |
| Prepare scientific atmospheric or climate reports, articles, or texts. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.81 | exposed |
| Analyze climate data sets, using techniques such as geophysical fluid dynamics, data assimilation, or numerical modeling. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.75 | exposed |
| Analyze historical climate information, such as precipitation or temperature records, to help predict future weather or climate trends. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.72 | exposed |
| Research the impact of industrial projects or pollution on climate, air quality, or weather phenomena. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.58 | exposed |
| Conduct wind assessment, integration, or validation studies. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.45 | exposed |
| Estimate or predict the effects of global warming over time for specific geographic regions. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.38 | exposed |
| Develop and deliver training on weather topics. | 41.5% | 25.2% | 33.3% | 3.81 | exposed |
| Apply meteorological knowledge to issues such as global warming, pollution control, or ozone depletion. | 40.0% | 35.0% | 25.0% | 3.29 | exposed |
| Develop or use mathematical or computer models for weather forecasting. | 33.3% | 16.7% | 50.0% | 4.50 | exposed |
| Perform managerial duties, such as creating work schedules, creating or implementing staff training, matching staff expertise to situations, or analyzing performance of offices. | 31.2% | 31.2% | 37.5% | 3.27 | assisted |
| Design or develop new equipment or methods for meteorological data collection, remote sensing, or related applications. | 30.0% | 20.0% | 50.0% | 3.62 | exposed |
| Consult with other offices, agencies, professionals, or researchers regarding the use and interpretation of climatological information for weather predictions and warnings. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 3.67 | assisted |
| Direct forecasting services at weather stations or at radio or television broadcasting facilities. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 4.08 | assisted |
| Measure wind, temperature, and humidity in the upper atmosphere, using weather balloons. | 13.3% | 11.7% | 75.0% | 3.21 | untouched |
| Gather data from sources such as surface or upper air stations, satellites, weather bureaus, or radar for use in meteorological reports or forecasts. | 11.7% | 13.3% | 75.0% | 4.05 | untouched |
| Collect air samples from planes or ships over land or sea to study atmospheric composition. | 11.7% | 13.3% | 75.0% | 3.78 | untouched |
| Teach college-level courses on topics such as atmospheric and space science, meteorology, or global climate change. | 11.7% | 13.3% | 75.0% | 3.67 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 2.68 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 0.87 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.64 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.96 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.82 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.73 | 0-3 |
What this means in practice
Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.