AI exposure: Historians
Research, analyze, record, and interpret the past as recorded in sources, such as government and institutional records, newspapers and other periodicals, photographs, interviews, films, electronic media, and unpublished manuscripts, such as personal diaries and letters.
Reading this score
computed47.7% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Historians at the 86th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.9 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.
What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 21 tasks it averages 1.94 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.
The most exposed thing this job does is Edit historical society publications, at 93.3%. The least is Conserve and preserve manuscripts, records, and other artifacts, at 0.0%. A gap of 93.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within life, physical and social science occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 60 roles in the group is 35.8%, and only 4 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 21 tasks, 19 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 2 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take systems being given deeper access to the organisation's own records and history, which is already happening. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Task by task
21 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edit historical society publications. | 93.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 2.85 | exposed |
| Prepare publications and exhibits, or review those prepared by others, to ensure their historical accuracy. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.94 | exposed |
| Organize information for publication and for other means of dissemination, such as via storage media or the Internet. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.93 | exposed |
| Present historical accounts in terms of individuals or social, ethnic, political, economic, or geographic groupings. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.83 | exposed |
| Speak to various groups, organizations, and clubs to promote the aims and activities of historical societies. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.40 | exposed |
| Research and prepare manuscripts in support of public programming and the development of exhibits at historic sites, museums, libraries, and archives. | 61.3% | 26.2% | 12.5% | 3.60 | exposed |
| Translate or request translation of reference materials. | 60.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 2.60 | exposed |
| Determine which topics to research, or pursue research topics specified by clients or employers. | 52.5% | 22.5% | 25.0% | 3.72 | exposed |
| Organize data, and analyze and interpret its authenticity and relative significance. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 4.01 | exposed |
| Conduct historical research as a basis for the identification, conservation, and reconstruction of historic places and materials. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.92 | exposed |
| Research the history of a particular country or region, or of a specific time period. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.83 | exposed |
| Conduct historical research, and publish or present findings and theories. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.82 | exposed |
| Trace historical development in a particular field, such as social, cultural, political, or diplomatic history. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.11 | exposed |
| Advise or consult with individuals and institutions regarding issues such as the historical authenticity of materials or the customs of a specific historical period. | 40.0% | 35.0% | 25.0% | 3.31 | exposed |
| Coordinate activities of workers engaged in cataloging and filing materials. | 37.5% | 25.0% | 37.5% | 3.62 | exposed |
| Recommend actions related to historical art, such as which items to add to a collection or which items to display in an exhibit. | 32.4% | 25.9% | 41.7% | 3.62 | exposed |
| Gather historical data from sources such as archives, court records, diaries, news files, and photographs, as well as from books, pamphlets, and periodicals. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.21 | exposed |
| Interview people to gather information about historical events and to record oral histories. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 3.18 | exposed |
| Collect detailed information on individuals for use in biographies. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 3.58 | exposed |
| Teach and conduct research in colleges, universities, museums, and other research agencies and schools. | 11.7% | 13.3% | 75.0% | 3.38 | untouched |
| Conserve and preserve manuscripts, records, and other artifacts. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.88 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 2.87 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 0.83 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.58 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.58 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.94 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.39 | 0-3 |
What this means in practice
Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.