The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 49-9092.00 · Job Zone 3

AI exposure: Commercial Divers

Work below surface of water, using surface-supplied air or scuba equipment to inspect, repair, remove, or install equipment and structures. May use a variety of power and hand tools, such as drills, sledgehammers, torches, and welding equipment. May conduct tests or experiments, rig explosives, or photograph structures or marine life.

Reading this score

computed

Commercial Divers is among the least exposed occupations measured, at 7.2% of weighted task load, rank 844 of 923. 85.8% of this job is work current AI systems cannot produce at all. That is not a statement about skill or value. It is a statement about what these systems can and cannot do.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 24 tasks it averages 2.81 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Communicate with workers on the surface while underwater, at 26.7%. The least is Perform offshore oil or gas exploration or extraction duties, at 0.0%. A gap of 26.7% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within installation, maintenance and repair occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 13.8% across the group's 50 roles, with 40 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 24 tasks, 2 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 22 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.490-4
Embodiment2.810-3
Presence0.900-3
Accountability1.170-3
Context1.350-3
Verification cost1.650-3

Task by task

24 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Communicate with workers on the surface while underwater, using signal lines or telephones.26.7%23.3%50.0%4.62exposed
Obtain information about diving tasks and environmental conditions.26.7%23.3%50.0%4.11exposed
Supervise or train other divers, including hobby divers.20.0%17.5%62.5%3.80untouched
Operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life.15.0%10.0%75.0%3.97untouched
Carry out non-destructive testing, such as tests for cracks on the legs of oil rigs at sea.15.0%10.0%75.0%3.88untouched
Take test samples or photographs to assess the condition of vessels or structures.15.0%10.0%75.0%3.83untouched
Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment.12.5%12.5%75.0%4.12untouched
Inspect the condition of underwater steel or wood structures.10.0%15.0%75.0%4.09untouched
Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin.6.7%18.3%75.0%4.63untouched
Cultivate or harvest marine species or perform routine work on fish farms.5.2%3.1%91.7%2.02untouched
Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.72untouched
Descend into water with the aid of diver helpers, using scuba gear or diving suits.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.17untouched
Repair ships, bridge foundations, or other structures below the water line, using caulk, bolts, and hand tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.92untouched
Cut and weld steel, using underwater welding equipment, jigs, and supports.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.91untouched
Perform activities related to underwater search and rescue, salvage, recovery, or cleanup operations.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.78untouched
Recover objects by placing rigging around sunken objects, hooking rigging to crane lines, and operating winches, derricks, or cranes to raise objects.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.73untouched
Install, inspect, clean, or repair piping or valves.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.72untouched
Set or guide placement of pilings or sandbags to provide support for structures, such as docks, bridges, cofferdams, or platforms.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.72untouched
Install pilings or footings for piers or bridges.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.63untouched
Salvage wrecked ships or their cargo, using pneumatic power velocity and hydraulic tools and explosive charges, when necessary.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.58untouched
Remove obstructions from strainers or marine railway or launching ways, using pneumatic or power hand tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.32untouched
Drill holes in rock and rig explosives for underwater demolitions.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.72untouched
Remove rubbish or pollution from the sea.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.54untouched
Perform offshore oil or gas exploration or extraction duties, such as conducting underwater surveys or repairing and maintaining drilling rigs or platforms.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.42untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.