The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 49-3031.00 · Job Zone 3

AI exposure: Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists

Diagnose, adjust, repair, or overhaul buses and trucks, or maintain and repair any type of diesel engines. Includes mechanics working primarily with automobile or marine diesel engines.

Reading this score

computed

At 8.2% of weighted task load, Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists sits at the 11th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 86.5% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 26 tasks it averages 2.83 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Follow green operational practices involving conservation of water or energy or reduction of..., at 55.0%. The least is Operate valve-grinding machines to grind and reset valves, at 0.0%. A gap of 55.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within installation, maintenance and repair occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 13.8% across the group's 50 roles, with 36 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 26 tasks, 2 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 24 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.510-4
Embodiment2.830-3
Presence0.350-3
Accountability0.920-3
Context1.330-3
Verification cost1.610-3

Task by task

26 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Follow green operational practices involving conservation of water or energy or reduction of solid waste.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.84exposed
Use handtools, such as screwdrivers, pliers, wrenches, pressure gauges, or precision instruments, as well as power tools, such as pneumatic wrenches, lathes, welding equipment, or jacks and hoists.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.54exposed
Inspect, test, and listen to defective equipment to diagnose malfunctions, using test instruments such as handheld computers, motor analyzers, chassis charts, or pressure gauges.17.8%15.6%66.7%4.08untouched
Attach test instruments to equipment, and read dials and gauges to diagnose malfunctions.15.0%10.0%75.0%4.17untouched
Examine and adjust protective guards, loose bolts, and specified safety devices.15.0%10.0%75.0%4.13untouched
Measure vehicle emissions to determine whether they are within acceptable limits.15.0%10.0%75.0%3.85untouched
Inspect brake systems, steering mechanisms, wheel bearings, and other important parts to ensure that they are in proper operating condition.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.30untouched
Diagnose and repair vehicle heating and cooling systems.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.04untouched
Inspect and verify dimensions and clearances of parts to ensure conformance to factory specifications.7.9%4.6%87.5%3.96untouched
Inspect, repair, and maintain automotive and mechanical equipment and machinery, such as pumps and compressors.5.8%6.7%87.5%4.00untouched
Raise trucks, buses, and heavy parts or equipment using hydraulic jacks or hoists.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.23untouched
Adjust and reline brakes, align wheels, tighten bolts and screws, and reassemble equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.21untouched
Perform routine maintenance such as changing oil, checking batteries, and lubricating equipment and machinery.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.16untouched
Rewire ignition systems, lights, and instrument panels.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.05untouched
Test drive trucks and buses to diagnose malfunctions or to ensure that they are working properly.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.05untouched
Disassemble and overhaul internal combustion engines, pumps, generators, transmissions, clutches, and differential units.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.94untouched
Adjust or repair computer controlled exhaust emissions devices.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.93untouched
Rebuild gas or diesel engines.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.90untouched
Specialize in repairing and maintaining parts of the engine, such as fuel injection systems.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.88untouched
Recondition and replace parts, pistons, bearings, gears, and valves.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.80untouched
Install or repair accessories.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.75untouched
Repair or adjust seats, doors, or windows.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.71untouched
Dismount, mount, and repair or replace tires.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.69untouched
Align front ends and suspension systems.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.65untouched
Maintain or repair vehicles with alternative fuel systems, including biodiesel, hybrid, or compressed natural gas vehicles.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.44untouched
Operate valve-grinding machines to grind and reset valves.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.13untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.