AI exposure: Carpenters
Construct, erect, install, or repair structures and fixtures made of wood and comparable materials, such as concrete forms; building frameworks, including partitions, joists, studding, and rafters; and wood stairways, window and door frames, and hardwood floors. May also install cabinets, siding, drywall, and batt or roll insulation. Includes brattice builders who build doors or brattices (ventilation walls or partitions) in underground passageways.
Reading this score
computedAt 9.3% of weighted task load, Carpenters sits at the 12th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 84.5% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 29 tasks it averages 2.57 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports, at 73.3%. The least is Apply shock-absorbing, sound-deadening, or decorative paneling to ceilings or walls, at 0.0%. A gap of 73.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within construction and extraction occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 61 roles in the group is 5.0%, and only 15 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 29 tasks, 5 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 24 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 0.64 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.57 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.27 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.75 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.21 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.24 | 0-3 |
Task by task
29 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.40 | exposed |
| Maintain job records and schedule work crew. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.54 | exposed |
| Prepare cost estimates for clients or employers. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.42 | exposed |
| Select and order lumber or other required materials. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.82 | exposed |
| Study specifications in blueprints, sketches, or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials required. | 30.0% | 20.0% | 50.0% | 3.39 | exposed |
| Verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 3.73 | untouched |
| Inspect ceiling or floor tile, wall coverings, siding, glass, or woodwork to detect broken or damaged structures. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 3.43 | untouched |
| Arrange for subcontractors to deal with special areas, such as heating or electrical wiring work. | 6.7% | 18.3% | 75.0% | 3.65 | untouched |
| Examine structural timbers and supports to detect decay, and replace timbers as required, using hand tools, nuts, and bolts. | 5.8% | 6.7% | 87.5% | 3.52 | untouched |
| Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.05 | untouched |
| Follow established safety rules and regulations and maintain a safe and clean environment. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.91 | untouched |
| Shape or cut materials to specified measurements, using hand tools, machines, or power saws. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.83 | untouched |
| Install structures or fixtures, such as windows, frames, floorings, trim, or hardware, using carpenters' hand or power tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.77 | untouched |
| Build or repair cabinets, doors, frameworks, floors, or other wooden fixtures used in buildings, using woodworking machines, carpenter's hand tools, or power tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.63 | untouched |
| Remove damaged or defective parts or sections of structures and repair or replace, using hand tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.57 | untouched |
| Install rough door and window frames, subflooring, fixtures, or temporary supports in structures undergoing construction or repair. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.56 | untouched |
| Erect scaffolding or ladders for assembling structures above ground level. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.56 | untouched |
| Fill cracks or other defects in plaster or plasterboard and sand patch, using patching plaster, trowel, and sanding tool. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.50 | untouched |
| Dig or direct digging of post holes and set poles to support structures. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.50 | untouched |
| Finish surfaces of woodwork or wallboard in houses or buildings, using paint, hand tools, or paneling. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.47 | untouched |
| Cover subfloors with building paper to keep out moisture and lay hardwood, parquet, or wood-strip-block floors by nailing floors to subfloor or cementing them to mastic or asphalt base. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.44 | untouched |
| Bore boltholes in timber, masonry or concrete walls, using power drill. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.39 | untouched |
| Assemble and fasten materials to make frameworks or props, using hand tools and wood screws, nails, dowel pins, or glue. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.37 | untouched |
| Perform minor plumbing, welding, or concrete mixing work. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.29 | untouched |
| Anchor and brace forms and other structures in place, using nails, bolts, anchor rods, steel cables, planks, wedges, and timbers. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.27 | untouched |
| Work with or remove hazardous material. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.39 | untouched |
| Build sleds from logs and timbers for use in hauling camp buildings and machinery through wooded areas. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.19 | untouched |
| Construct forms or chutes for pouring concrete. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.15 | untouched |
| Apply shock-absorbing, sound-deadening, or decorative paneling to ceilings or walls. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2.84 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.