The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 47-2152.00 · Job Zone 3

AI exposure: Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters

Assemble, install, alter, and repair pipelines or pipe systems that carry water, steam, air, or other liquids or gases. May install heating and cooling equipment and mechanical control systems. Includes sprinkler fitters.

Reading this score

computed

At 10.3% of weighted task load, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters sits at the 15th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 81.3% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 30 tasks it averages 2.50 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans, at 50.0%. The least is Weld small pipes or special piping, using specialized techniques, equipment, or materials, at 0.0%. A gap of 50.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within construction and extraction occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 61 roles in the group is 5.0%, and only 13 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 30 tasks, 6 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 23 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.730-4
Embodiment2.500-3
Presence0.380-3
Accountability1.540-3
Context1.320-3
Verification cost1.760-3

Task by task

30 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Estimate time, material, or labor costs for use in project plans.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.73exposed
Keep records of work assignments.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.73exposed
Select pipe sizes, types, or related materials, such as supports, hangers, or hydraulic cylinders, according to specifications.40.0%35.0%25.0%4.03exposed
Plan pipe system layout, installation, or repair, according to specifications.35.0%40.0%25.0%4.07assisted
Operate motorized pumps to remove water from flooded manholes, basements, or facility floors.33.3%16.7%50.0%2.86exposed
Lay out full scale drawings of pipe systems, supports, or related equipment, according to blueprints.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.11exposed
Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.05exposed
Fill pipes or plumbing fixtures with water or air and observe pressure gauges to detect and locate leaks.10.0%15.0%75.0%4.02untouched
Inspect, examine, or test installed systems or pipe lines, using pressure gauge, hydrostatic testing, observation, or other methods.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.99untouched
Inspect structures to assess material or equipment needs, to establish the sequence of pipe installations, or to plan installation around obstructions, such as electrical wiring.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.66untouched
Inspect work sites for obstructions or holes that could cause structural weakness.5.0%20.0%75.0%3.56untouched
Shut off steam, water, or other gases or liquids from pipe sections, using valve keys or wrenches.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.19untouched
Install underground storm, sanitary, or water piping systems, extending piping as needed to connect fixtures and plumbing.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.18untouched
Assemble pipe sections, tubing, or fittings, using couplings, clamps, screws, bolts, cement, plastic solvent, caulking, or soldering, brazing, or welding equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.16untouched
Locate and mark the position of pipe installations, connections, passage holes, or fixtures in structures, using measuring instruments such as rulers or levels.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.14untouched
Cut, thread, or hammer pipes to specifications, using tools such as saws, cutting torches, pipe threaders, or pipe benders.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.12untouched
Direct helpers engaged in pipe cutting, preassembly, or installation of plumbing systems or components.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.01untouched
Install pipe assemblies, fittings, valves, appliances such as dishwashers or water heaters, or fixtures such as sinks or toilets, using hand or power tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.99untouched
Anchor steel supports from ceiling joists to hold pipes in place.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.93untouched
Attach pipes to walls, structures, or fixtures, such as radiators or tanks, using brackets, clamps, tools, or welding equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.92untouched
Modify, clean, or maintain pipe systems, units, fittings, or related machines or equipment, using hand or power tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.81untouched
Install automatic controls to regulate pipe systems.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.73untouched
Maintain or repair plumbing by replacing defective washers, replacing or mending broken pipes, or opening clogged drains.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.62untouched
Repair or remove and replace system components.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.60untouched
Cut openings in structures to accommodate pipes or pipe fittings, using hand or power tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.57untouched
Install green plumbing equipment, such as faucet flow restrictors, dual-flush or pressure-assisted flush toilets, or tankless hot water heaters.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.09untouched
Install pipe systems to support alternative energy-fueled systems, such as geothermal heating or cooling systems.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.38untouched
Install fixtures, appliances, or equipment designed to reduce water or energy consumption.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.30untouched
Repair hydraulic or air pumps.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.22untouched
Weld small pipes or special piping, using specialized techniques, equipment, or materials, such as computer-assisted welding or microchip fabrication.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.07untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.