AI exposure: Painters, Construction and Maintenance
Paint walls, equipment, buildings, bridges, and other structural surfaces, using brushes, rollers, and spray guns. May remove old paint to prepare surface prior to painting. May mix colors or oils to obtain desired color or consistency.
Reading this score
computedPainters, Construction and Maintenance is among the least exposed occupations measured, at 6.8% of weighted task load, rank 849 of 923. 89.6% of this job is work current AI systems cannot produce at all. That is not a statement about skill or value. It is a statement about what these systems can and cannot do.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 17 tasks it averages 2.59 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Calculate amounts of required materials and estimate costs, based on surface measurements or..., at 52.5%. The least is Cut stencils and brush or spray lettering or decorations on surfaces, at 0.0%. A gap of 52.5% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within construction and extraction occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 61 roles in the group is 5.0%, and only 23 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 17 tasks, 3 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 14 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 0.47 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.59 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.09 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.41 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.03 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 0.91 | 0-3 |
Task by task
17 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calculate amounts of required materials and estimate costs, based on surface measurements or work orders. | 52.5% | 22.5% | 25.0% | 3.63 | exposed |
| Select and purchase tools or finishes for surfaces to be covered, considering durability, ease of handling, methods of application, and customers' wishes. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.12 | exposed |
| Read work orders or receive instructions from supervisors or homeowners to determine work requirements. | 30.0% | 20.0% | 50.0% | 4.51 | exposed |
| Cover surfaces with dropcloths or masking tape and paper to protect surfaces during painting. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.61 | untouched |
| Apply paint, stain, varnish, enamel, or other finishes to equipment, buildings, bridges, or other structures, using brushes, spray guns, or rollers. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.47 | untouched |
| Fill cracks, holes, or joints with caulk, putty, plaster, or other fillers, using caulking guns or putty knives. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.45 | untouched |
| Smooth surfaces, using sandpaper, scrapers, brushes, steel wool, or sanding machines. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.24 | untouched |
| Erect scaffolding or swing gates, or set up ladders, to work above ground level. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.13 | untouched |
| Wash and treat surfaces with oil, turpentine, mildew remover, or other preparations, and sand rough spots to ensure that finishes will adhere properly. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.98 | untouched |
| Apply primers or sealers to prepare new surfaces, such as bare wood or metal, for finish coats. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.86 | untouched |
| Remove old finishes by stripping, sanding, wire brushing, burning, or using water or abrasive blasting. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.52 | untouched |
| Remove fixtures such as pictures, door knobs, lamps, or electric switch covers prior to painting. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.49 | untouched |
| Use special finishing techniques such as sponging, ragging, layering, or faux finishing. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.31 | untouched |
| Waterproof buildings, using waterproofers or caulking. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.25 | untouched |
| Mix and match colors of paint, stain, or varnish with oil or thinning and drying additives to obtain desired colors and consistencies. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.09 | untouched |
| Polish final coats to specified finishes. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.12 | untouched |
| Cut stencils and brush or spray lettering or decorations on surfaces. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2.71 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.