The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 19-2043.00 · Job Zone 4

AI exposure: Hydrologists

Research the distribution, circulation, and physical properties of underground and surface waters; and study the form and intensity of precipitation and its rate of infiltration into the soil, movement through the earth, and return to the ocean and atmosphere.

Reading this score

computed

37.6% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Hydrologists at the 66th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.4 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 25 tasks it averages 1.98 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Prepare reports or presentations describing research results, at 80.0%. The least is Administer programs designed to ensure the proper sealing of abandoned wells, at 3.3%. A gap of 76.7% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within life, physical and social science occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 60 roles in the group is 35.8%, and only 27 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 25 tasks, 18 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 6 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take cheaper ways to verify output, since the cost of checking is currently doing more to hold this work in place than the cost of producing it. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Task by task

25 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Prepare reports or presentations describing research results, using illustrations, maps, appendices, and other information.80.0%20.0%0.0%4.39exposed
Study public water supply issues, including flood and drought risks, water quality, wastewater, and impacts on wetland habitats.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.05exposed
Compile and evaluate hydrologic information to prepare navigational charts and maps and to predict atmospheric conditions.61.3%26.2%12.5%3.62exposed
Conduct research and communicate information to promote the conservation and preservation of water resources.55.4%32.1%12.5%4.31exposed
Develop computer models for hydrologic predictions.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.31exposed
Evaluate research data in terms of its impact on issues such as soil and water conservation, flood control planning, and water supply forecasting.45.0%30.0%25.0%4.00exposed
Conduct short- and long-term climate assessments and study storm occurrences.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.89exposed
Answer questions and provide technical assistance and information to contractors or the public regarding issues such as well drilling, code requirements, hydrology, and geology.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.50exposed
Review applications for site plans and permits and recommend approval, denial, modification, or further investigative action.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.31exposed
Investigate complaints or conflicts related to the alteration of public waters, gathering information, recommending alternatives, informing participants of progress, and preparing draft orders.43.0%23.7%33.3%3.81exposed
Apply research findings to help minimize the environmental impacts of pollution, waterborne diseases, erosion, and sedimentation.40.0%35.0%25.0%4.35exposed
Evaluate data and provide recommendations regarding the feasibility of municipal projects, such as hydroelectric power plants, irrigation systems, flood warning systems, and waste treatment facilities.40.0%35.0%25.0%3.68exposed
Design and conduct scientific hydrogeological investigations to ensure that accurate and appropriate information is available for use in water resource management decisions.37.5%25.0%37.5%4.67exposed
Study and document quantities, distribution, disposition, and development of underground and surface waters.35.4%27.1%37.5%4.61exposed
Prepare hydrogeologic evaluations of known or suspected hazardous waste sites and land treatment and feedlot facilities.35.0%40.0%25.0%3.80assisted
Develop or modify methods for conducting hydrologic studies.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.83exposed
Measure and graph phenomena such as lake levels, stream flows, and changes in water volumes.28.3%21.7%50.0%4.32exposed
Study and analyze the physical aspects of the earth in terms of hydrological components, including atmosphere, hydrosphere, and interior structure.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.89exposed
Investigate properties, origins, and activities of glaciers, ice, snow, and permafrost.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.23exposed
Design civil works associated with hydrographic activities and supervise their construction, installation, and maintenance.14.1%19.3%66.7%3.60untouched
Collect and analyze water samples as part of field investigations or to validate data from automatic monitors.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.11untouched
Install, maintain, and calibrate instruments such as those that monitor water levels, rainfall, and sediments.10.8%14.2%75.0%4.05untouched
Coordinate and supervise the work of professional and technical staff, including research assistants, technologists, and technicians.10.0%15.0%75.0%4.18untouched
Monitor the work of well contractors, exploratory borers, and engineers and enforce rules regarding their activities.3.3%21.7%75.0%3.08untouched
Administer programs designed to ensure the proper sealing of abandoned wells.3.3%21.7%75.0%2.70untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability2.440-4
Embodiment1.160-3
Presence0.670-3
Accountability1.210-3
Context1.980-3
Verification cost1.890-3

What this means in practice

Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.