AI exposure: Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers
Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.
Reading this score
computedAt 16.8% of weighted task load, Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers sits at the 28th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 72.5% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 30 tasks it averages 2.35 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Schedule work with customers and initiate work orders, house requisitions, and orders from stock, at 80.0%. The least is Cut or drill holes in floors, walls, or roof to install equipment, at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within installation, maintenance and repair occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 50 roles in the group is 12.8%, and only 15 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 30 tasks, 6 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 23 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 1.04 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.35 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.49 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 1.13 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.28 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.48 | 0-3 |
Task by task
30 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schedule work with customers and initiate work orders, house requisitions, and orders from stock. | 80.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 4.20 | exposed |
| Keep records of repairs and replacements made and causes of malfunctions. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 4.09 | exposed |
| Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 4.07 | exposed |
| Discuss heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions. | 40.0% | 35.0% | 25.0% | 4.40 | exposed |
| Recommend, develop, or perform preventive or general maintenance procedures, such as cleaning, power-washing, or vacuuming equipment, oiling parts, or changing filters. | 40.0% | 35.0% | 25.0% | 4.09 | exposed |
| Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area. | 35.0% | 40.0% | 25.0% | 4.15 | assisted |
| Study blueprints, design specifications, or manufacturers' recommendations to ascertain the configuration of heating or cooling equipment components and to ensure the proper installation of components. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 3.89 | exposed |
| Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition. | 20.7% | 12.6% | 66.7% | 4.19 | untouched |
| Supervise and instruct assistants. | 20.0% | 17.5% | 62.5% | 3.81 | untouched |
| Lay out reference points for installation of structural and functional components, using measuring instruments. | 16.7% | 8.3% | 75.0% | 3.80 | untouched |
| Test pipes, lines, components, and connections for leaks. | 15.0% | 10.0% | 75.0% | 4.12 | untouched |
| Adjust system controls to settings recommended by manufacturer to balance system. | 15.0% | 10.0% | 75.0% | 4.04 | untouched |
| Test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 4.32 | untouched |
| Inspect and test systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 3.99 | untouched |
| Install, connect, or adjust thermostats, humidistats, or timers. | 6.7% | 5.8% | 87.5% | 4.17 | untouched |
| Repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.24 | untouched |
| Lay out and connect electrical wiring between controls and equipment, according to wiring diagrams, using electrician's hand tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.24 | untouched |
| Repair or service heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to improve efficiency, such as by changing filters, cleaning ducts, and refilling non-toxic refrigerants. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.12 | untouched |
| Braze or solder parts to repair defective joints and leaks. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.10 | untouched |
| Perform mechanical overhauls and refrigerant reclaiming. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.02 | untouched |
| Install expansion and control valves, using acetylene torches and wrenches. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.99 | untouched |
| Connect heating or air conditioning equipment to fuel, water, or refrigerant source to form complete circuit. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.95 | untouched |
| Mount compressor, condenser, and other components in specified locations on frames, using hand tools and acetylene welding equipment. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.90 | untouched |
| Install auxiliary components to heating or cooling equipment, such as expansion or discharge valves, air ducts, pipes, blowers, dampers, flues, or stokers. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.86 | untouched |
| Install or repair self-contained ground source heat pumps or hybrid ground or air source heat pumps to minimize carbon-based energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.85 | untouched |
| Install or repair air purification systems, such as specialized filters or ultraviolet (UV) light purification systems. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.83 | untouched |
| Measure, cut, thread, or bend pipe or tubing, using pipe fitter's tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.71 | untouched |
| Install dehumidifiers or related equipment for spaces that require cool, dry air to operate efficiently, such as computer rooms. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.64 | untouched |
| Lift and align components into position, using hoist or block and tackle. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.60 | untouched |
| Cut or drill holes in floors, walls, or roof to install equipment, using power saws or drills. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.57 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.