AI exposure: Economists
Conduct research, prepare reports, or formulate plans to address economic problems related to the production and distribution of goods and services or monetary and fiscal policy. May collect and process economic and statistical data using sampling techniques and econometric methods.
Reading this score
computed44.5% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Economists at the 80th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.6 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.
What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 14 tasks it averages 1.96 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.
The most exposed thing this job does is Study economic and statistical data in area of specialization, at 80.0%. The least is Testify at regulatory or legislative hearings concerning the estimated effects of changes in..., at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within life, physical and social science occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 60 roles in the group is 35.8%, and only 12 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 14 tasks, 10 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 3 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take cheaper ways to verify output, since the cost of checking is currently doing more to hold this work in place than the cost of producing it. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Task by task
14 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Study economic and statistical data in area of specialization, such as finance, labor, or agriculture. | 80.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 4.61 | exposed |
| Conduct research on economic issues, and disseminate research findings through technical reports or scientific articles in journals. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.83 | exposed |
| Review documents written by others. | 64.2% | 23.3% | 12.5% | 4.00 | exposed |
| Study the socioeconomic impacts of new public policies, such as proposed legislation, taxes, services, and regulations. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 4.18 | exposed |
| Explain economic impact of policies to the public. | 47.5% | 27.5% | 25.0% | 4.04 | exposed |
| Compile, analyze, and report data to explain economic phenomena and forecast market trends, applying mathematical models and statistical techniques. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 4.25 | exposed |
| Provide advice and consultation on economic relationships to businesses, public and private agencies, and other employers. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.96 | exposed |
| Formulate recommendations, policies, or plans to solve economic problems or to interpret markets. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.92 | exposed |
| Develop economic guidelines and standards, and prepare points of view used in forecasting trends and formulating economic policy. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.81 | exposed |
| Forecast production and consumption of renewable resources and supply, consumption, and depletion of non-renewable resources. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 2.83 | exposed |
| Provide litigation support, such as writing reports for expert testimony or testifying as an expert witness. | 20.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 3.18 | assisted |
| Supervise research projects and students' study projects. | 11.7% | 13.3% | 75.0% | 3.83 | untouched |
| Teach theories, principles, and methods of economics. | 11.7% | 13.3% | 75.0% | 3.53 | untouched |
| Testify at regulatory or legislative hearings concerning the estimated effects of changes in legislation or public policy, and present recommendations based on cost-benefit analyses. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.29 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 2.61 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 0.50 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 1.00 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 1.14 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.96 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.86 | 0-3 |
What this means in practice
Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.