The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 15-1251.00 · Job Zone 4

AI exposure: Computer Programmers

Create, modify, and test the code and scripts that allow computer applications to run. Work from specifications drawn up by software and web developers or other individuals. May develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information.

Reading this score

computed

55.1% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Computer Programmers at the 93th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 3.1 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 17 tasks it averages 1.97 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Prepare detailed workflow charts and diagrams that describe input, output, and logical..., at 73.3%. The least is Collaborate with computer manufacturers and other users to develop new programming methods, at 26.7%. A gap of 46.7% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within computer and mathematical occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 57.8% across the group's 36 roles, with 20 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 17 tasks, 17 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 0 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take systems being given deeper access to the organisation's own records and history, which is already happening. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Task by task

17 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Prepare detailed workflow charts and diagrams that describe input, output, and logical operation, and convert them into a series of instructions coded in a computer language.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.58exposed
Compile and write documentation of program development and subsequent revisions, inserting comments in the coded instructions so others can understand the program.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.56exposed
Write or contribute to instructions or manuals to guide end users.66.7%33.3%0.0%3.27exposed
Develop Web sites.64.2%23.3%12.5%3.24exposed
Write, analyze, review, and rewrite programs, using workflow chart and diagram, and applying knowledge of computer capabilities, subject matter, and symbolic logic.61.3%26.2%12.5%4.42exposed
Write, update, and maintain computer programs or software packages to handle specific jobs such as tracking inventory, storing or retrieving data, or controlling other equipment.61.3%26.2%12.5%4.15exposed
Conduct trial runs of programs and software applications to be sure they will produce the desired information and that the instructions are correct.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.96exposed
Train subordinates in programming and program coding.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.53exposed
Correct errors by making appropriate changes and rechecking the program to ensure that the desired results are produced.52.5%22.5%25.0%4.38exposed
Perform or direct revision, repair, or expansion of existing programs to increase operating efficiency or adapt to new requirements.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.37exposed
Consult with managerial, engineering, and technical personnel to clarify program intent, identify problems, and suggest changes.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.04exposed
Consult with and assist computer operators or system analysts to define and resolve problems in running computer programs.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.50exposed
Perform systems analysis and programming tasks to maintain and control the use of computer systems software as a systems programmer.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.28exposed
Investigate whether networks, workstations, the central processing unit of the system, or peripheral equipment are responding to a program's instructions.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.26exposed
Train users on the use and function of computer programs.41.7%20.8%37.5%2.96exposed
Assign, coordinate, and review work and activities of programming personnel.33.7%24.6%41.7%3.22exposed
Collaborate with computer manufacturers and other users to develop new programming methods.26.7%23.3%50.0%2.84exposed

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability3.140-4
Embodiment0.260-3
Presence0.500-3
Accountability0.790-3
Context1.970-3
Verification cost1.280-3

What this means in practice

Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.